Tom Reed's 56-44 win in the general election is a pretty decent showing by Matt Zeller, who only had a few months to fundraise and campaign. It's interesting that there was around a 10,000 vote undervote in the special versus the general, indicating some confusion on the part of voters.
Comments
I took it the other way due to the fact that Zeller didn't carry even one county - especially Monroe
Considering the shituation he inherited, it could have been a hell of a lot worse. Barend got 40% of the vote in 2004, and she wasn't running with the legacy of Eric Massa looming over her shoulder.
I believe he took Steuben Co., Republican stronghold.
Do you really think Eric hurt Zeller? There really wasn't much talk of that.
I think the main problem for Zeller is that this is a Republican District in a Republican year.
Massa might have dispirited some Democratic voters.
I heard that most Democrats didn't bother to vote cause they already knew it was useless. Too bad, cause if they had, there might have been a totally different outcome.
Do they really need to talk about it? I think just the fact that a Democrat gets caught doing something sexual just plays into a negative stereotype of Democrats. Jennifer Flowers, tickle fights. All the same.
Reed was probably going to win either way, so he didn't need to play that card at all. If it had been closer, do you think he would have found some way to insinuate it? I've never seen a politician who was above it.
Reed didn't win on his own merit. He won because most of the district have amnesia and forgot that the Republican party, Bush and Cheney got us into a mess.
OBAMA! OBAMA!
Yes we need to thank Obama, without him a massive GOP landslide would never had been possible. I hope he got the message.
Massive landslide is not really accurate in that most of the critical races were close. The overwhelming number of seat changes has as much to do with what Obama didn't do as what he did. What he's saying at this moment during his press conference doesn't suggest that he is making any shift in his strategy, but time will tell. If he doesn't channel Truman in the next two years, he's done.
If Obama would have done more of what he promised he would have lost more seats in congress and elsewhere. Heck even Paladino would have had a shot if we had tried the terrorists in New York City.
The whole "trying the terrorists" thing was a low point in the last few years of American politics. I'm sorry the Obama administration caved on that one. We should try those jackasses wherever we feel like it, to take away the mystique of terrorism. We give them power by making them seem so scary that we can't try them in NYC.
Given the context of this year's election nationally, even without the Massa stain, I agree that Zeller did well. New York state, thanks in large part to Paladino, seems to have been pretty well immunized against the anti-government frenzy, so Cuomo may have helped Matt's numbers, even in a hostile upstate environment.
And yes, "Obama, Obama!" If he and Reid don't show serious backbone and concentrate on results (weakening or eliminating the filibuster threat, as well as holds on administrative and judicial appointments and getting the energy/jobs/consumption train on track), he'll be a one-termer and the damage done in the last thirty years could be irreparable.
Filibusters can be a good thing - I for one hope they stay
We'll never agree on ideology. My concern is that we are passing a point of no return at which money, which is now protected by the Constition as speech, can do whatever it wants. Corporations (concentrations of money, rivaled only by the national treasury), increasingly global in content, are now private citizens with Constitutional rights, where previously theY were regulated and granted priviledges by law. Money is concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer people. Inequality is now structural. The Supreme Court has lost even the pretense of objectivity and has enabled this radical change.
Only through appointments to the Courts of people who believe in the original intent of the Bill of Rights can this structure be reshaped, and courage on the part of the President, as well as advise and consent, defined as a majority vote in the Senate, can make it happen.
I agree that Massa disillusioned a lot of Democratic voters in this district and turned them off to politics in general. I agree that Zeller did pretty well considering this WAS a Republican year and a Republican district. He ran a relatively short campaign and had very little (if any) backing from the DCCC. He's got a future somewhere in politics.
Stayed tuned, you certainly haven't heard the last of Matt. He has a lot of fans and support in the 29th.
From what I've seen, Zeller didn't get any money from the Democratic party. It all went to Cuomo and the downstate Dems. Zeller basically raised every bit of his campaign funding and then hit the road for a month to get his message out. My prediction is that we have not seen the last of that fine young man.
Certainly not a respectable showing for "Jance" Volk (as it was spelled on her official campaign signs). Less than 1% write-in rate-- and probably at least a fifth of those were not Volk. She bombed, and apparently according to the statement she released, she's still hurling insults.
Not having read her statement, but having watched the Volk campaign, let me guess: she wuz robbed.
That's very funny. Now time to start watching Congressman Reed. One thing is for sure, Rotten, your blog has at least two more years of life left in it!
TDS - Next time, you should run for Congress!!!
Rotten - Zeller got beat very badly, stop trying to justify his showing. Tom Reed ran away with it and was the best financed candidate.
Reed was the best financed candidate, especially with the gas company money and other speical interest groups. Now it will be payback time. Matt's support was growing by leaps and bounds. People were just starting to get educated.
Reed didn't win on his own. He was just with the "right" party this time around. A Republican monkey could have run and won this one.
Zeller was not "badly beaten". He convinced 70,000 plus voters in about 1 month to not vote for Reed. He also lost by the least percentage of any upstate Democrat. All with no funding help from his party. No money from big corporations (like Reed had), no help from anyone except people who heard him speak and debate the issues and were impressed by his intelligence, passion, service to his country and determination to make a difference in its future.
In spite of what you say, you have not heard the last of Matt Zeller.
I don't think Tom Reed "ran away with it at all." Study the county-by-county results. In Chemung and (Lordy!) even Steuben, Zeller ran several thousand votes AHEAD of many other Demos on the ticket. This guy had great crossover appeal. I think he made one impressive showing!
I think the writing was on the wall this past March when Massa resigned. Reed was in the right place at the right time. If a viable challenger went against him in the primary, then we may have a different outcome today. Reed hedged his bets and he won. It's that simple. Getting Volk disqualified was both the right and proper thing to do from a strategic stand point.
Our procedures are in place for a reason.
With respect to Zeller, I didn't vote for him, but I do admire his courage and gumption. So it goes. Reed's performance will likely be dependent on whether he can compete against an incumbent Democrat in 2012. I for one, believe there will be no 29th at that time.
Actually, if you look at the federal offices, Zeller got fewer votes in every county than Schumer and Gillibrand did. Wouldn't this suggest that the ticket splitters voted for Schumer and Gillibrand and Reed?
Actually, I think it is evident that there were Western New Yorkers who banking on Harry Ried's loss in Nevada. This would have made Schumer the senate majority leader. However, they misplaced their bets. The unfortunate outcome is that Shcumer has another term. With respect to Gillibrand's election, it was a sink or swim vote. You voted for Chuck and you voted for her.
The reality is that NY is going to continue in its spiral of debt. More taxpayers will leave while more leeches will move here. It's sad, but true. Social programs should not have become permanent entitlements. It's that simple.
Whenever I hear analyses like this one (strategic vote for Schumer), I'm skeptical - I think the more obvious explanation is that Schumer is doing a decent job and that he had no effective opposition.
Ya gotta love Schumer - he has been fixing the upstate economy for 12 years now
Right, and why hasn't he fixed the downstate economy yet? We need that revenue up here.
It's amazing how fast "Jance's" site went down after this election. It is also interesting that Zeller has yet to update his site with concessions to Mr. Reed.
I guess you play the hand you are dealt. Good luck to us in the 29th. We will see how the next two years go. However, Pelosi was clearly and unequivocally fired. Reed had a hand in that, even if it was nothing more than twenty Nine of Spades.
I agree that Zeller should, to wrap up things properly, post not only a concession but a big thanks, etc. I am sure he's preparing to do that but it should be done soon. Again, I think he made one damn FINE race!
I'm pretty sure Matt doesn't have time as he's still in the Army and has a lot of training to catch up on.
If you look on Facebook, you will see that Zeller has to make up Army Reserve training he was excused from during the campaign. He's on active duty. I don't think he has time to appease all of you.
My Lord--I just discovered that Tom Reed LOST his hometown of Corning to Zeller! THAT is telling! One of the local tv stations picked up on it:
Corning, N.Y. - Republican Tom Reed won New York’s 29th congressional race, but lost in his hometown of Corning.Reed says the news of his loss where he was born will only drive him to work harder.
Reed took in 56% of the vote overall.
However, in the City of Corning, his opponent, Democrat Matt Zeller, beat him by 449 votes.
Reed said perhaps people are upset because he did not run for re-election as Corning mayor.
Regardless he says he plans to win them over one by one.
“We’ll just get out there everyday, hopefully prove to the people of corning that we're going to represent the place with honor. We’re going to represent this place with a work ethic they've never seen before,” said Reed.
Reed will be sworn into office on November 16th, even before the results are made official.
The clerk of the House of Representatives says he can start working immediately.
Presumptive house speaker, John Boehner, called reed to congratulate him.
He says the two discussed policies and how they plan on changing Washington.
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One other thing:
You have to believe that the 29th is going to be targeted for elimination in the reapportionment.
Cattaraugus and Allegany would join Chautauqua in a new district served by Chris Lee. Brian Higgins and Louise Slaughter would shuffle the Rochester and Buffalo metros. If Buerkle wins NY-25, she and Richard Hanna would get much of the rest of the district, with Hinchey possibly picking up some pieces of Chemung. A GOP district is eliminated, the Democrat districts stay safely Democrat, and the districts are possibly even less gerrymandered than now.
If you're right, then Mr. Reed is clearly a one-termer. Sad thing is that the taxpayers will be on the hook for his pension.
Nope-he has to serve 6 years before he gets a pension
That's good.
He'll never make it 6 years. Unless he changes his lifestyle, he'll most likely end up having a heart attack. Ever hear of Nelson Rockefeller.
This might be "old hat," but I have a slightly differing view.
Yes, the 29th IS in the "on way out the door." But, as to which SECOND district succumbs to the "executioner," I submit that the NY-23rd is best for that "distinction."
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/NY_Congressional_Dist..., will show the present lines. NOTE the NY-23rd.
Being a continuing student of History and Geography, + Human Nature, it is NOT hard to see that this section will be cut up and "shared." It has at least ONE distinction in common with the NY-29th. It IS BIG, and it is highly UNDERWHELMED with PEOPLE / BODIES / VOTERS. The political CONSEQUENCES are virtually NIL as to effective counter-posturing. In toto, both these districts are IMPOTENT as to voter power, and "star recognition."
I am SPECULATING that the NY-25th will be re-designated as will ALL districts that are predominately NORTH of Saugarties, and yes, your Congressman will be more REMOTE from YOU, the voter. I also included that NO county from the D-M-NY Coalition will suffer the fate of being cast into the "meat grinder" with THOSE counties from the "wild and woolly west" of Upstate. Upstate(meaning the REST of NYS) will be the victims.
Further, NO county from the "protected" D-M-NY zone will be forced to "bunk" with "one of those counties" as to STATE re-districting. This is to ensure that the D-M-NY Coalition remains in FIRM CONTROL of all resources of STATE GOVERNMENT, especially those offices that either SET policy, or INFLUENCE policy / LEGISLATION.
The link shown above will be a good source to bookmark as to referencing what the new 2012 districts will be materialized as, and how CHANGE has been foisted upon YOU. It will be interesting to see what befalls the NY-28th, the "telephone / head-set" district.
As to 2012, that will be a full-blown boiling kettle of rotted meats. Many familiar politicians at all levels will retire --- while the getting is good, OR, at party "behest."
But, through it all there are two perceptions I hold: #1: That the old saying about change and frequency of, will ring true. #2: That Oliver Hardy's famous line to Stan Laurel, "Now LOOK at the fine mess you've gotten ME INTO, Stanley!!!!," will also come to pass.
As the "drama" plays out: "..as we close our episode of today, we are all reminded that we are good citizens, and the we must do our duty to our various governments..." HOG WASH!!! I don'T WANT another "SOAP OPERA," I want REALITY. And that means LIFE.
RM
Ragingmt@rochester.rr.com
11-15-2010
This might be "old hat," but I have a slightly differing view.
Yes, the 29th IS in the "on way out the door." But, as to which SECOND district succumbs to the "executioner," I submit that the NY-23rd is best for that "distinction."
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/NY_Congressional_Dist..., will show the present lines. NOTE the NY-23rd.
Being a continuing student of History and Geography, + Human Nature, it is NOT hard to see that this section will be cut up and "shared." It has at least ONE distinction in common with the NY-29th. It IS BIG, and it is highly UNDERWHELMED with PEOPLE / BODIES / VOTERS. The political CONSEQUENCES are virtually NIL as to effective counter-posturing. In toto, both these districts are IMPOTENT as to voter power, and "star recognition."
I am SPECULATING that the NY-25th will be re-designated as will ALL districts that are predominately NORTH of Saugarties, and yes, your Congressman will be more REMOTE from YOU, the voter. I also included that NO county from the D-M-NY Coalition will suffer the fate of being cast into the "meat grinder" with THOSE counties from the "wild and woolly west" of Upstate. Upstate(meaning the REST of NYS) will be the victims.
Further, NO county from the "protected" D-M-NY zone will be forced to "bunk" with "one of those counties" as to STATE re-districting. This is to ensure thta the D-M-NY Coalition remains in FIRM CONTROL of all resources of STATE GOVERNMENT, especially those offices that either SET policy, or INFLUENCE policy / LEGISLATION.
The link shown above will be a good source to bookmark as to referencing what the new 2012 districts will be materialized as, and how CHANGE has been foisted upon YOU. It will be interesting to see what befalls the NY-28th, the "telephone / head-set" district.
As to 2012, that will be a full-blown boiling kettle of rotted meats. Many familiar politicians at all levels will retire --- while the getting is good, OR, at party "behest."
But, through it all there are two perceptions I hold: #1: That the old saying about change and frequency of, will ring true. #2: That Oliver Hardy's famous line to Stan Laurel, "Now LOOK at the fine mess you've gotten ME INTO, Stanley!!!!," will also come to pass.
As the "drama" plays out: "..as we close our episode of today, we are all reminded that we are good citizens, and the we must do our duty to our various governments..." HOG WASH!!! I don'T WANT another "SOAP OPERA," I want REALITY. And that means LIFE.
RM
Ragingmt@rochester.rr.com
11-15-2010
My God---I was studying results and Zeller took three of the nine precincts in Bath Township. Seriously, that is REMARKABLE in and of itself. You add in that he carried Tom's hometown of Corning--who would have imagined THAT?--and this young fellow showed incredible crossover appeal.
Those who knew Tom Reed best voted against him ....... the rest of the district voted party line.
They love Reed so much in Corning that they voted to keep him there.
The Hornell Evening Tribune just announced that Matt beat Reed there as well.
Why all the shots at Reed from everyone? This has indeed turned into a "I worship Zeller" web page
No no, Elmer----not intended to be shooting shots. But I just find it amazing, really, that Corning voted for the opponent of Reed. Really quite remarkable. I mean, if ever there was a geographic epicenter where talk would still linger about Massa, and hence any hangover effect...it would be right there, wouldn't it? And I don't think Massa EVER carried a district in Bath, yet this Zeller guy did. Three of them. That's all. Pretty remarkable to me. Otherwise, everyone is happy for Reed and his family and, I think, wish him well.