Archive (2006)
Massa Pushes the Stem Cell Button
Thu, 08/17/2006 - 20:26 — RottenchesterEric Massa held a press conference today at the University of Rochester Medical Center to publicize his position on embryonic stem cell research. He's strongly in favor of government support using these cells. His campaign's press release linked Bush and Kuhl's positions on stem cells and noted that they favor "frozen, microscopic cells over living human beings."
The WXXI coverage of the press conference quoted Kuhl as saying he supports research on adult and umbilical cord stem cells. That's true as far as it goes. However, it's unclear whether adult cells have the same potential as embryonic cells. And, though umbilical cord blood has proven uses which merit further research, they aren't the same as embryonic cells.
Kuhl's position is the radical one in this debate. He has to convince voters of two dubious propositions to gain their support:
- It is better to throw away thousands of embryos than use them for research into life saving therapy.
- We should all take the risk that research into less promising lines of stem cells will be sufficient to find cures for terrible diseases that we all fear.
That's a tall order, indeed, and Massa is smart to choose this issue to distinguish himself from Kuhl.
Kuhl on the Hot Buttons
Thu, 08/17/2006 - 11:55 — RottenchesterHot buttons are issues of deep interest to a small, well-funded and vocal set of advocacy groups. They are the prickly pear cactus hidden in the lush green field of election-year politics. For politicians on the "right" side of a given hot button, they're a source of delicious, sugary treats. For anyone else, they're a hard-to-remove pain in the ass.
If you're an incumbent, the hot button advocates plow through your record with a fine-toothed comb and "grade" you. Those grades are usually "A" or "F" -- hot-button advocates require purity and slavish devotion to their cause. Challengers are also graded, often via the use of questionnaires.
Everybody's got a slightly different list of hot buttons. Abortion (including stem cell research), gay marriage and gun control are three* on my radar for the 29th. The addition of stem cells to the right-to-life/pro-choice debate adds some more fuel to this blazing pyre. The recent New York Supreme Court ruling on gay marriage has kept this issue front-and-center among state residents. And the 29th is New York's most rural district, so gun control is probably of more general interest here than downstate.
So let's see if there are any thorns in the garden for John R "Randy" Kuhl Jr.
On the three hot buttons mentioned above, Kuhl sits clearly on one side of the fence. He's got a 100% right-to-life rating, voted for the constitutional amendment to define marriage as the union of man and woman, and there's no reason to think he won't get another "A" rating from the NRA.
When it comes to gun control, Randy's in tune with his rural / suburban district. A gun in the 29th means hunting, not urban assault, so his long-time stand on this issue should continue to cause him few if any problems come election time.
Gay marriage is politically interesting because it is so new that interest groups and voter opinion hasn't really gelled to the same degree as abortion and gun control. Though Rochester has a large GLBT community, that's primarily an urban phenomenon that doesn't reach into Randy's district. In addition, I don't see the GLBT community spending a lot of money on this issue. That's because the gay special interest groups seem to be suffering from Radiohead syndrome: they're so fucking special. The main gay PAC raised and spent twice what right-to-lifers raised in the recent cycle, but they used it all to fund gay and lesbian candidates. That may be a good long-term strategy (if you're measuring political progress in geologic time), but it sure doesn't put any money into defeating foes of gay rights in 2006.
Having dodged the gay rights cactus, I'm afraid that Randy perhaps has impaled himself on an unexpected right-to-life prickle: stem cells. Abortion used to be so easy for a player: if you are right-to-life, you pick up the "hard right" and lose the "hard left". If you are pro-choice, expect the opposite. But stem cells have changed the landscape. This will be the first election where a solid vote (and veto) are part of the election debate. In the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll [pdf] of the 50 most contested districts, stem cell research was the top issue that made respondents more likely to support a Democrat. The stem cell issue might well be a crossover issue among older voters or voters who have personal experience with some of the diseases that could benefit from this new research.
Eric Massa is holding a press conference on the topic of stem cell research this morning in Rochester. So he clearly thinks that this issue has legs. We'll examine his position on the hot buttons in more depth soon.
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* I intentionally left flag-burning off this list - just because I hate writing about such a non-issue.
Running Against Wal-Mart
Thu, 08/17/2006 - 10:01 — Rottenchester
This morning's New York Times has a front-page story about Democrats who are running against Wal-Mart. Their beef is with the sub-standard wages and health benefits paid by the retail giant.
There's another concern at work in the 29th: the displacement of local businesses. This sign is in a yard near the western edge of the 29th in Mendon. It's part of a local protest against Wal-Mart in towns and villages near Lima (which is just outside the 29th). Wal-Mart has proposed building a supercenter in that town, which would probably mean the end for many local hardware and grocery stores.
In that part of the 29th, sad face signs are all over the place, in front of houses large and small. Residents with whom I spoke weren't concerned about the benefits and wages at Wal-Mart. They simply didn't want to drive 10 miles to buy a carton of milk or a new screwdriver.
From what I've heard, Eric Massa's position on Wal-Mart reflects this concern. In his July 20 appearance on the Bob Lonsberry show, Massa noted that he doesn't shop at Wal-Mart and instead prefers locally-owned businesses. I don't remember a lot of doctrinare rhetoric about the evils of Wal-Mart, just a practical concern over the area's economy. Judging from the signs, this position will go down well in the part of the 29th that borders Lima.
Polling Tidbits
Wed, 08/16/2006 - 23:31 — RottenchesterThe Daily Kos story about Massa's AFL-CIO endorsement contains an interesting fact and some titillating polling gossip.
The fact is that the 29th leans 5.2% Republican according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index. That's still near the middle of the distribution of all congressional districts (full discussion of that graph in the middle of this page). In other words, though the 29th is considered conservative, it is closer to the center than to the edge.
The gossip concerns the Massa poll I wrote about earlier. In the comments, gossipers claim they have talked to Massa or Massa staffers say the following:
It showed Massa and Kuhl as roughly tied even though Massa's name recognition was about 20% and Kuhl's was in the 80s.
In that internal poll, Massa was two points behind Kuhl with a 4% margin of error. [...] And there's more: when a neutral statement was read about each candidate, Massa went up 30 points.
Again, consider the source, but this will have to do until one of the area media outlets ponies up for a poll.
First GOTV Call of '06
Wed, 08/16/2006 - 19:44 — RottenchesterEnough of the speculation on get out the vote (GOTV) efforts in the 29th. This afternoon, I received my first election-related call from the Monroe County Democratic Party:
Hello Mr & Mrs. ____________, This is ____________ calling on behalf of Eric Massa. He's the Democratic candidate to replace Randy Kuhl. We hope you have heard of Eric Massa. If you haven't, he is a 24-year Navy veteran who is working to return integrity, service and accountabilty to Congress. For more information concerning Eric, you can go to his website www.massaforcongress.com or call his campaign headquarters, 672-5335.
This was on my answering machine, so I don't know if it was an awareness call or perhaps would have morphed into a fundraising call if I had answered it. Nevertheless, its timing (~80 days before election) indicates that a serious GOTV effort might well be planned for the 29th.
Followup: Unions and Turnout
Wed, 08/16/2006 - 09:52 — RottenchesterThe Massa campaign's press release on the AFL-CIO endorsement mentioned here yesterday points out that another union, the New York State United Teachers (NYSUT) also switched allegiance from Kuhl to Massa this week. It quotes an AFL-CIO spokesman who said that the 2004 Kuhl endorsement was based on Kuhl's "generally acceptable" record as an a New York State legislator, and the switch to Massa is based on Kuhl's "very weak" record as a Congressman.
I don't buy the AFL-CIO's explanation that the switch was based entirely on Kuhl's voting record and Massa's position on the issues. If this were a district with a weak Democratic candidate in a year where voters didn't have a "throw the bums out" attitude, I doubt that the AFL-CIO would have switched.
In any case, the Massa campaign can be justifiably proud of getting these unions to switch -- it's an indicator of the strength of their campaign. Over the years, the unions have changed from supporting candidates who are pro-labor to picking and supporting winners. Their endorsements show that Massa is a potential winner.
The Swing State Project's coverage of the union switch includes this rah-rah statement:
With labor coming onside, Eric is well-positioned to take advantage of the deadly Democratic wave sweeping from Buffalo to Long Island under the Spitzer-Clinton banner.
This echoes an earlier Gannett News Service piece on turnout that speculated that Spitzer and Clinton's popularity would increase Democratic turnout in the 29th. As I posted yesterday, I think their popularity is relevant only if their races are close. This year, they aren't.
The reason that candidates for Senator or Governor don't have coattails, especially in off-year elections, is that sometime voters are energized to vote only if they think their votes will make a difference. If you're not a regular voter and your heroes Elliot or Hillary are ahead by 20 points in the polls, why bother voting? They're going to win anyway. The same is true if your hero is losing by 20 points. In this voter's mind, his or her vote won't affect the outcome.
The sometime voter -- in the 29th, that's one of the ~100K who turned out in '04 but not in '02 -- is going to have be energized to vote by Massa or Kuhl in this race. Spitzer, Clinton or their weak opponents will not draw marginal voters to the polls.
Turnout
Tue, 08/15/2006 - 17:00 — RottenchesterBarring a last-minute special election for Elmira dogcatcher, the Kuhl/Massa showdown is probably the tightest race in the 29th. Hillary's opponent will be laughably weak, and it looks like Spitzer will win in a walk, so turnout for this off-year election will be driven solely by interest in the Congressional race.
The conventional wisdom is that high turnout favors Democrats, so this is probably bad news for Massa. If Hillary or Spitzer were in a tight race, they'd pour some of their massive warchests into a get-out-the-vote effort. As it stands, they can save their money for future campaigns.
The 29th has existed in its current form for two elections. In 2002, turnout was 174,631. In 2004, it was 270,215, a 55% increase. 2002 was probably the most "off" of off-years: the only major statewide race was a blowout for Pataki. So '02 is probably a low-water mark for turnout, representing the "solid core" of those who always vote. Amo Houghton took home a staggering 73.1% of the vote that year.
As the race progresses, I'll talk more about the turnout plans for 29th candidates. But it's never too soon to speculate about the national strategies of both parties.
Kuhl will probably use the same "72 Hour" strategy used by the Republicans to deliver Ohio in 2004. This Republican plan combines polling data, automated calls or emails, and personal visits to turn out the base. Assuming he's in close touch with the national campaign apparatus (I'm guessing he's joined at the hip), Randy's job will be to provide enough volunteers or paid workers to call and visit voters on election day.
Unfortunately for Massa, the Democratic turnout effort is looking like a casualty of disillusioned deep pockets and an internecine squabble between the Deaniacs and the Clintonites. For a party that can't reliably turnout the faithful, this seems like a bad time for the head of the Congressional Campaign Committee (Rahm Emmanuel) to stop speaking with the Party Chairman (Howard Dean).
Today, E.J. Dionne's column mentions a 40-most-contested district turnout program that Emmanual is financing. Even if the 29th is on that list, Massa probably won't be able to rely on as much help from the national party as Kuhl. He better start praying now for a sunny and warm November 7.
Kuhl on the Issues
Tue, 08/15/2006 - 10:17 — RottenchesterRandy's issues page needs a little work. Five of the 12 issues on that page -- including the "War on Terror" -- haven't been linked yet. Firefox users who mouse over the Issues drop-down, and IE users who click on the missing issues in the drop-down, get a message containing the word "void" in the notification area (lower-left corner).
I don't think that's the message Kuhl intends to send.
Hedging Their Bets
Mon, 08/14/2006 - 16:33 — RottenchesterThe New York State AFL-CIO endorsed Eric Massa during their convention today. An endorsement is great, but what about the money? As of the end of the last reporting period (June 30), it looks like Massa's gotten precisely nothing from this union.
When Massa finally gets his donation, I wonder if it will be more than the $4500 that AFL-CIO unions have given Kuhl during this cycle. And I'll let someone else explain how giving almost $5K to a Bush loyalist freshman helps the union cause -- that's way beyond my abilities.
The AFL-CIO isn't the only union putting money in Randy's pocket. Since he sits on the the Education and Commerce and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, which control a lot of legislation that affects government employees, he also got $1000 from AFSCME, the state and county employees union.
That $1000 is a bit of an anomoly for AFSCME, which also happens to be the top all-time political donor of the last 18 years. Historically , they've given 98% of their money to Democrats. That's a pretty light hedge compared to the AFL-CIO, which has so far given 11% of its donations to Republicans in the current cycle.
Why "Fighting 29th"
Mon, 08/14/2006 - 15:03 — RottenchesterIt's a Colbert Report reference...perhaps that wasn't obvious. I'm hoping that Stephen will have a chance to interview Randy before the election.
What Issues "Cut" in the 29th?
Mon, 08/14/2006 - 08:30 — RottenchesterA recent Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll for NPR took a look at the 50 most contested congressional districts, the 29th among them. They found that the top four issues in the minds of likely voters are:
- The War in Iraq
- Jobs and the Economy
- Taxes and Spending
- Health Care
The full results [pdf] also show that voters in these districts are enthusiastic and inclined throw out incumbents.
Mystery Pollster has done some further analysis on the data. One interesting tidbit that he extracted from Greenberg et al. is that the 29th is in their "bottom tier" of competitive races. This is consistent with the work of other respected analysts like the Cook Political Report, which rates the 29th as "lean Republican" rather than the more competitive "toss up", and UVA Professor Larry Sabato, who rates it "likely Republican".
Randy's Sure Nickel
Sun, 08/13/2006 - 23:01 — RottenchesterRochesterturning's recent post on 2004's race, which went 51%/41% for Kuhl, raises an interesting question: who's running on the Conservative line this year? In 2004, the Conservative party candidate, Mark Assini, got 6% of the vote.
Unfortunately for Massa, this time around it's Randy [pdf]. That's probably a solid 5% for the man from Hammondsport.