The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Today's D&C race story contains this quote from a NRCC spokesman:

Officials at the National Republican Congressional Committee said they are standing by to support Reed.

“We’ve always been impressed by Tom Reed,” said spokesman Tory Mazzola.

In a few congressional districts, the NRCC has backed a second GOP candidate prior to a primary, Mazzola said.

Maggie Brooks has already met with the NRCC. I'd have expected the NRCC to keep quiet if Brooks were seriously considering a run.

That story also adds a couple possibles to the Democratic field: Canandaigua Mayor Ellen Polimeni, state Assemblywoman Barbara Lifton of Ithaca and Elmira Mayor John Tonello.

WGRZ reports that State Senator Cathy Young has repeated her vow not to run.

I received the following from the Reed campaign:

Congressman Massa's resignation doesn't change anything for us. Tom committed to running eight months ago and run he will whether in a special election or general whenever the process works itself out. Seven of the eight Republican chairs have re-affirmed their support and we are moving forward.

On Wednesday, Reed had the support of "all" the chairs. I'd guess that the one chair who's dropped off the list is Monroe County's.

I'd like to see Reed stay in the race. Anyone who's read this blog knows I've given him plenty of grief, most of which is richly deserved, and I'll continue to do so if he stays in. But I don't want him in because I think his presence would give a Democrat a better chance of winning. I honestly don't think that.

My reason is simple: we need more new faces in public office. A Reed candidacy, like Massa's, shows everyone that it is possible for someone without 20 years of political dues-paying to have a real shot at being a Member of Congress. The political system in Rochester and the Southern Tier is like a union hall: you need to hang around and pay your dues for years if you want to do more than sweep the floors. That's not what the founders had in mind.

Reed had the grit to give it a shot. That deserves some respect in my book, no matter what I think of his politics.

Massa's full statement is included after the break, for the record.

Two days ago as I sat reading my new annual CAT scan, having been told that the anomalies in the films may or may not be scar tissue, I decided to finally take the advice that my doctors have repeatedly given me, and that is to take care of my family and myself before my profession. After I decided not to run again I was told, for the first time, that a member of my staff believed I had made statements that made him feel “uncomfortable.” I was told that a report had been filed with the Congressional Ethics Committee. At no point prior to this had any member of the Ethics Committee communicated with me directly - if fact I first read it on the internet.

I own this reality. There is no doubt in my mind that I did in fact, use language in the privacy of my own home and in my inner office that, after 24 years in the Navy, might make a Chief Petty Officer feel uncomfortable. In fact, there is no doubt that this Ethics issue is my fault and mine alone. But in the incredibly toxic atmosphere that is Washington D.C., with the destruction of our elected leaders having become a blood sport, especially in talk radio and on the internet, there is also no doubt that an Ethics investigation would tear my family and my staff apart. Some would say that this is what happens when you stand apart from political parties, which I have done. Others will say that this is what happens to a non politician when they go to Washington DC. I want to make something perfectly clear. My difficulties are of my own making. Period. I am also aware that blogs and radio will have a field day with this in today's destructive and unforgiving political environment. In that investigators would be free to ask anything about me going back to my birth, I simply cannot rise to that level of perfection. God knows that I am a deeply flawed and imperfect person.

During long car rides, in the early hours of the evening, late at night and always in private, I know that my own language failed to meet the standards that I set for all around me and myself. I fell short and I believe now, as I have always believed, that it is not enough to simply talk the talk, but rather I must take action to hold myself accountable.

Therefore, effective at 5 PM on Monday the 8th of March I will resign my position as the Federal Representative of New York's 29th Congressional District in the 111th Congress. I do so with a profound sense of failure and a deep apology to all those whom, for the past year, I tried to represent as our Nation struggles with problems far greater than anyone can possibly imagine. I hope that my family, constituents, and fellow Members of Congress can accept this apology as being both genuine and heartfelt and I wish for them and all Americans only the best. I will take all actions possible to ensure that my personal health is secured in that I know that mine is a far more fragile lifeline than most. For the millions of fellow cancer survivors with whom I share this experience, they, more than anyone else, will understand the honesty and openness in this statement.

I ask that members of the press respect the privacy of my family, my staff, and me at this time.

-Congressman Eric Massa

Based on our recent experience in NY-23, here are some facts to keep in mind:

• There's no primary before a special election. Candidates are picked by the party apparatus.
• Party chairs tend to do a poor job picking candidates: Dede Scozzafava being a recent example.
• John McHugh announced his resignation June 2, and his resignation was effective at the end of September. The NY-23 election was held in November, to coincide with the regularly scheduled election. That's four months of campaigning.

Given all that, some speculation:

• Reed has been endorsed by party chairs. He's the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nod.
• Who knows what Dems will do. Massa is extremely influential in Tier politics. Even though he's resigning in disgrace, he's still an effective politician and may be able to convince party chairs that his pick, Shawn Hogan, has the best chance of winning.
• National party organizations and the press give these elections a lot of attention. That's especially true in this cycle, when everyone's expecting Democrats to lose seats, but nobody knows how many. The NRCC and DCCC are going to spend big, and there will be a lot of national media attention.
• At this moment, the DCCC has significantly more cash on hand than the NRCC. But the NRCC has to spend big, since they now have a good chance to win the seat. At the minimum, the DCCC will send enough to signal serious intent to the NRCC, because it's in the DCCC's interest for the NRCC to blow a wad on this election.
• If Massa resigns effective Monday, waiting until the next scheduled election (the September 14 primary) would entail over six months of vacancy. I can't see that happening.
• Paterson is probably on the road to resignation himself. This clouds the whole picture of timing of the special. He might announce the schedule immediately, or he might leave it to his successor.

Politico's latest adds a little more information on Eric Massa's alleged misdeeds. According to an anonymous Massa staffer, the alleged wrongdoing had been going on for eight months.

Other than that, there's not much new. The piece mentions the dispute between Massa and Sanford Dickert, his first paid campaign manager, in 2006. Anyone who isn't familiar with that dust-up can read the summary I wrote back then.