The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

The Politico reports that Jim Walsh [NY-25] cut a $1,000 donation to Edolphus "Ed" Towns, a Democrat from NY-10. Towns has been in Congress for 25 years, representing a district that's been Democratic since the 1940's.

In other words, Ed's not only a Democrat, he doesn't need the money. Yet, as far as I can tell, Walsh has given nothing to Randy Kuhl. I think that says more about Walsh than it does about Kuhl, but what, exactly, it says about Walsh is beyond my ken.

WXXI and the Democrat and Chronicle have coverage of yesterday's three-candidate press conference.

In addition to the substance of the press conference, it also looks like the three candidates found a way to get noticed in the Rochester media market, where individual press releases by candidates or officeholders usually go unnoticed.

The Massa campaign has posted the education plan discussed at this morning's press conference. It has three major components:

• Replace privately-funded student loans with low-interest, federally-financed student loans with low interest rates.
• Forgive student loans of students who perform five years of a public-service job, such as teaching, firefighting, policing, social work or nursing.
• Create incubator projects similar to those in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, or in Boston, to grow local business.

This morning's Massa press conference immediately followed a joint press conference with Democratic candidates Dan Maffei [NY-25] and Jon Powers [NY-26]. The subject of the conference was jobs and the future of children in Western New York.

I've asked for a copy of the plan, and when I receive it, I'll share the details with readers. In the meantime, here's Massa's take on it:

Following up on yesterday's Gannett story, the local Newspaper Guild has reached a contract with the D&C. Guild members had been working without a contract for 16 years.

According to the Guild's press release, Gannett, like a lot of large corporations, wanted to get rid of its pension plan. In order to do that, it had to seek union approval. Negotiations began last month, and the new contract was approved on Tuesday.

Ironically, the sticking point from 16 years ago was retirement benefits. Union members wanted access to the 401(k), and Gannett refused. Last month, Gannett reversed their position in order to unload manage their pension liability.

The Democrat and Chronicle has a fundraising story covering all four Rochester-area districts. Based on fundraising ability, it looks like two will be competitive: the 29th and the 26th, the seat held by retiring Tom Reynolds.

Since a spokesman for Dale Sweetland, the Republican hoping to replace retiring Jim Walsh in the 25th, said "It's impossible for us to raise $900,000 before the election — let's be real", I'll be real, too. Dan Maffei, who raised half that amount last quarter alone, is on track for a big win in that district.

The 28th district, held by Louise Slaughter, is uncompetitive this year. Her challenger didn't even raise the $50K required for a campaign finance report.

Other than the Star-Gazette and Democrat and Chronicle, almost every other paper in the 29th is owned by Gatehouse Communications. This week, Morningstar Financial released a report speculating that Gatehouse stock might be "worthless".

Last year, Gatehouse acquired 70 media properties and took on $1.2 billion in debt. Gatehouse may have trouble servicing that debt, which might trigger a situation where it becomes due immediately, which may lead to liquidation. Yesterday, Gatehouse stock closed under $1, down almost $17 from one year ago.

The Gatehouse papers in the 29th are often staffed by long-time residents who understand the Southern Tier political landscape. It would be a real loss if issues at the parent company disrupted those properties. It would also be an economic issue in Fairport, part of the 29th district, where Gatehouse has its corporate offices.

Gannett Corporation, which owns the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle and the Elmira Star-Gazette, announced its second-quarter earnings today. Profits at Gannett are down 36 percent from the same period last year, and Gannett's president offered no indication that things were getting any better.

In today's conference call, Gannett management pointed to Rochester as a bright point in an othwerwise dim picture. Rochester's readership penetration is 70%, which means that 70% of Rochesterians are reading some Gannett publication regularly.

Things are so great here that the publisher of the D&C, Michael Kane, was promoted today to the job of Interstate Group President and Publisher of the Indy Star.

The Messenger-Post's money story gets it about right: this is a close race. I've looked through the Massa and Kuhl fundraising reports, and both reflect tough realities for each candidate.

Massa's hard reality is that his nut is much bigger than Kuhl's. He is running two fully-staffed campaign offices, and his payroll is bigger than Kuhl's. One of the many benefits of incumbency is that Kuhl can have a presence throughout the district without spending a penny. Massa doesn't have that luxury, and he spent $120K more than Kuhl this cycle, mainly on office expenses.

Kuhl's burden is that PACs aren't going to cut it. Last cycle, he got twice as much money from PACs as he did from individuals. This quarter, those numbers were almost even. At this point in 2006, he had almost $100K more in PAC money than he did at the end of June.

Kuhl is almost even with where he was last cycle, and he's had to make up the PAC shortfall by soliciting big-money donors in the district. Though his effort there is impressive, he doesn't seem to be able to match Massa's volume of small-money donors. This quarter, 30% of Massa's donors gave less than $250, versus 15% of Kuhl's. Massa gets a number of contributions via ActBlue, a clearinghouse for Democrats who want to give to a number of different candidates.

Overall, Kuhl is almost exactly where he was in 2006. Massa has raised almost three times what he did in 2006. If the trend continues, Massa will surpass his $3 million goal, which is double what Kuhl raised in 2006.

WETM has a fundraising piece out this morning, probably the first of many from local media outlets.

Randy Kuhl will run on the Independence Party line again this Fall, according to the Star-Gazette. Kuhl got roughly 5% of his total vote last election on that line.