Another Kind of Audacity
Fri, 01/04/2008 - 08:33 — RottenchesterHere's the first email I received last night after the Iowa caucus was called for Obama:
Yeeeeaaaahhhhhhh!!!! You did it!
The DFA Unite for a Progressive President Campaign was a huge success and helped propel Senators Obama and Edwards to first and second place victories in Iowa.
A year ago, the pundits and beltway Democrats said this race was a forgone conclusion. Over the last two months, you made it a dead heat on the ground in Iowa.
Tonight: Progressives Won!
The nomination is far from over. New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are coming up fast. And, Super Tuesday could decide the nomination.
DFA stands for Democracy for America, a political action committee. Perhaps they did have something to do with setting the stage for Senator Obama's win last night. But the notion that someone should send them $15 because Obama won is a staggering misdirection. If you have a few bucks to send, you'll get the most bang for those bucks by sending them directly to your candidate of choice.With your help, we will continue to make history. You did it in Iowa. Let's do it again across the nation. Contribute $15 right now and support our campaign for a progressive president.
This is especially true in the 29th district, where groups like DFA and MoveOn are active supporters of Eric Massa's candidacy. If you're sending DFA money and haven't maxed out your contributions to Massa, you're as big a sucker as someone who thinks that the right way to respond to last night's events in Iowa is to send Howard Dean's brother a check.
Massa Q&A
Thu, 01/03/2008 - 16:19 — Rottenchester
Frequent commenter Elmer asked some interesting questions of Eric Massa over at Rochesterturning, and Massa has responded in the comments.
On other Q&A fronts, I haven't been able to attend the last couple of Massa press conferences, but I hope to get back in the habit next week.
On other Q&A fronts, I haven't been able to attend the last couple of Massa press conferences, but I hope to get back in the habit next week.
Local Media is Where It's At
Thu, 01/03/2008 - 10:27 — Rottenchester
National bloggers have been posting about the decline in traffic on "liberal" blogs, and the uptick on "conservative" blogs. This post has a good round-up, including graphs. I have an explanation that has nothing to do with left-wing fatigue, right-wing ascendency or Barack Obama. My guess is the national decline indicates that some of the audience for political blogging is going local.
For example, Rochesterturning, which mainly covers local political issues but occasionally discusses national ones, is celebrating its 18-month anniversary. Unless its readers have suddenly gotten an extra few minutes added to their day, I assume some of its traffic growth comes at the expense of national blogs. Other left-leaning blogs have sprung up in New York, including Room 8 in New York City, and The Albany Project. There are currently fewer local conservative blogs, and most of them are newer than their liberal counterparts (one example is Ontario GOP). I assume that local conservative blogs will continue to spring up, and they'll eventually take some traffic from the national conservative blogs.
Speaking of local media, a new, independently-run town forum has sprung up in Henrietta. In addition to carrying the new posts of former D&C blogger Peter Boulay, the forum also has a section where the Messenger-Post reporter on the Henrietta beat, Jessica Gaspar, solicits story ideas and asks for feedback. Jessica's availability and responsiveness is in sharp contrast to the beat reporters for the D&C. I've sent a couple of emails to D&C reporters and never gotten an answer.
For example, Rochesterturning, which mainly covers local political issues but occasionally discusses national ones, is celebrating its 18-month anniversary. Unless its readers have suddenly gotten an extra few minutes added to their day, I assume some of its traffic growth comes at the expense of national blogs. Other left-leaning blogs have sprung up in New York, including Room 8 in New York City, and The Albany Project. There are currently fewer local conservative blogs, and most of them are newer than their liberal counterparts (one example is Ontario GOP). I assume that local conservative blogs will continue to spring up, and they'll eventually take some traffic from the national conservative blogs.
Speaking of local media, a new, independently-run town forum has sprung up in Henrietta. In addition to carrying the new posts of former D&C blogger Peter Boulay, the forum also has a section where the Messenger-Post reporter on the Henrietta beat, Jessica Gaspar, solicits story ideas and asks for feedback. Jessica's availability and responsiveness is in sharp contrast to the beat reporters for the D&C. I've sent a couple of emails to D&C reporters and never gotten an answer.
Kuhl's New Year
Tue, 01/01/2008 - 17:01 — Rottenchester
The Ontario Republican's New Year's Eve post sounds like he was hitting the champagne a little early. GOP believes that Randy Kuhl will do well in 2008, and cites two reasons why: the surge is working and therefore Iraq is less of an issue, and S-CHIP is off the table.
I must have slept through the Iraq victory parade, especially the part where all of our soldiers came home and we stopped spending billions per month on a war without end. But I don't think I was the only one who missed the "Iraq is not a problem" bandwagon. Last week's Economist magazine, hardly a hotbed of left-wing extremism, has an in-depth review of the Iraq situation. Acknowledging that the surge has lessened violence in Iraq and provided an opportunity for improvement, they say:
As for S-CHIP, Massa can still argue that Kuhl's stalwart support of the Republican minority led to 50,000 fewer insured children in the 29th district. The recent S-CHIP cave-in by the Democrats just kicked the can down the road. Massa can still ask voters who they would like to be voting on S-CHIP expansion in 2009: him, or Randy Kuhl.
In general, all of the issues on which Massa campaigned in 2006 are still important in 2008. The economy isn't getting better, the deficit is growing, the war in Iraq hasn't made us more secure, and healthcare is becoming less affordable by the day. The only difference between '08 and '06 is that the entire country will be focused on the presidential race, where all of these issues will be debated continuously until the day of the election. I have to assume that a happy warrior like Massa is relishing that prospect, and I don't think there's much silver lining for Kuhl in the cloud that's been created by 7 years of the Bush administration.
I must have slept through the Iraq victory parade, especially the part where all of our soldiers came home and we stopped spending billions per month on a war without end. But I don't think I was the only one who missed the "Iraq is not a problem" bandwagon. Last week's Economist magazine, hardly a hotbed of left-wing extremism, has an in-depth review of the Iraq situation. Acknowledging that the surge has lessened violence in Iraq and provided an opportunity for improvement, they say:
Alas, there has so far been no sign that the government of Nuri al-Maliki is poised to grab this opportunity. Indeed, as an adviser to General Petraeus glumly describes it, “The politics is going nowhere.” The government still acts like a collection of competing fiefs, not a body that speaks with a national voice. Even among Shias, a paralysing factionalism has, if anything, got worse. [...]Also, I didn't sleep through the Petraeus hearings, where he made it clear that the surge will end in the Spring. By that time, both parties will have picked their nominees and Iraq will once again be a major issue getting tons of airtime as part of the Presidential race. Surge or no surge, a broad majority of Americans still want to get out of Iraq. Thinking that this issue will just go away is simply unrealistic. We are going to hear a lot about Iraq in 2008, and much of it will not be kind to Kuhl's record on the issue.
Worse, Mr Maliki is still failing to reach out effectively to the Sunnis. The main Sunni block in parliament, which had a clutch of ministries in the ruling coalition, continues to take no part in government. [...] To cap it all, the Sunnis are sorely divided too—and not just over al-Qaeda. The main Sunni block in parliament is deeply wary of the Awakening in Anbar, which may displace it as the authentic voice of the Sunnis nationwide.
As for S-CHIP, Massa can still argue that Kuhl's stalwart support of the Republican minority led to 50,000 fewer insured children in the 29th district. The recent S-CHIP cave-in by the Democrats just kicked the can down the road. Massa can still ask voters who they would like to be voting on S-CHIP expansion in 2009: him, or Randy Kuhl.
In general, all of the issues on which Massa campaigned in 2006 are still important in 2008. The economy isn't getting better, the deficit is growing, the war in Iraq hasn't made us more secure, and healthcare is becoming less affordable by the day. The only difference between '08 and '06 is that the entire country will be focused on the presidential race, where all of these issues will be debated continuously until the day of the election. I have to assume that a happy warrior like Massa is relishing that prospect, and I don't think there's much silver lining for Kuhl in the cloud that's been created by 7 years of the Bush administration.
Why I Canceled My D&C Subscription
Tue, 01/01/2008 - 10:33 — Rottenchester
This morning I spoke with a pleasant young woman in Gannett's Louisville KY customer service center and ended my subscription to the paper Democrat and Chronicle. Though I've been hard on the D&C in recent posts, the reasons I canceled were mainly the environment and my wallet.
In the past couple of years, my family has been getting most of its news from the Internet. As a result, unread papers were piling up around the house. I just couldn't justify the waste of paper and petroleum for a newspaper that was rarely read by the members of my household.
By canceling the D&C, I'll save $260/year, which is the EZ Pay rate plus tips to my delivery man. I pay just a little more than that for a broadband Internet connection, which provides far more value than 30 or so ad-laden pages of newsprint. Even the Sunday coupons, which sometimes save me a buck or two, are less of a consideration today than in years past. The stores where I shop all have buyer reward programs, and most of them mail (or e-mail) coupons and discounts.
Getting rid of the D&C turned out to be a no-brainer, and in retrospect, I'm surprised that I waited this long.
In the past couple of years, my family has been getting most of its news from the Internet. As a result, unread papers were piling up around the house. I just couldn't justify the waste of paper and petroleum for a newspaper that was rarely read by the members of my household.
By canceling the D&C, I'll save $260/year, which is the EZ Pay rate plus tips to my delivery man. I pay just a little more than that for a broadband Internet connection, which provides far more value than 30 or so ad-laden pages of newsprint. Even the Sunday coupons, which sometimes save me a buck or two, are less of a consideration today than in years past. The stores where I shop all have buyer reward programs, and most of them mail (or e-mail) coupons and discounts.
Getting rid of the D&C turned out to be a no-brainer, and in retrospect, I'm surprised that I waited this long.
Like a Refiner's Fire
Sun, 12/30/2007 - 12:03 — Rottenchester
Those of you who listened to Handel's Messiah this Christmas may remember this aria and chorus, taken from Malachi 3:
This was most evident in the last-minute pre-Christmas swarm of legislation approved by Congress. It contained a mix of concessions and conglomerations, all driven by the Republican stall and the Democrat's inability to offer compromises that would find fault lines in the Republican minority. Politically, perhaps the biggest concession was the stake driven through the heart of S-CHIP expansion. Remember last month when the press was predicting that the Democrats would extend S-CHIP until September, 2008 to force a funding showdown before the election? So much for that idea: the new S-CHIP extension, passed on the last day of the session, extends S-CHIP as-is until March, 2009. The NPR headline, "Democrats Suffer Loss as House Extends SCHIP" says it all. The 2009 compromise is a white flag on an issue that was supposed to be bread-and-butter for Democrats in the next election.
The S-CHIP cave-in offers two lessons in politics. First, and as usual, it shows that money donated to "Progressive" issue-oriented groups is generally wasted. Take a look at the Americans United for Change blog, which makes no mention of the total loss suffered by an organization that spent millions for S-CHIP ads this year. Instead, Americans United has picked a new issue, the mortgage crisis, which I'm sure will yield more donations from angry contributors. Just don't ask them for results.
Second, S-CHIP shows House and Senate Republicans that short-term pain can yield long-term gain. Randy Kuhl and his colleagues took an incredible pounding in the media, yet that sound and fury signified nothing in the end. The Republicans knew that the Democrats could not abide a lapse in S-CHIP funding, so they stuck together until the day of reckoning and got what they wanted. Kuhl can argue, as he does in his most recent blog post, that he "voted for S-CHIP", and he has plenty of time before the 2008 campaign for voters to forget what happened this year.
Another major political concession was the cut in the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Unlike the original proposal, the version passed has no pay-as-you-go provision. It simply cuts the AMT and adds the $50 billion shortfall to the deficit. This abandonment of pay-go is another Democratic cave-in motivated by a deadline. If some kind of AMT cut was not approved by the end of the year, next year's tax refunds would be at stake. As it stands, the refunds might be delayed by seven weeks.
The big conglomeration at the end of the session was the Omnibus Budget Bill, which began life as the State Department and Foreign Aid appropriation. Faced with the specter of failing to pass a budget bill, the Democrats took the State bill and tacked on every appropriation bill but Defense (which had already passed). To understand how the Republicans used the refining fire of the Senate, I've added a bill history feature to Congressdb. The history for the State and Foreign Aid appropriation illustrates the refining process nicely. The original bill was rejected by Randy Kuhl and the majority of Republicans. It went through the refining fire of the Senate, and came back as a bill that was approved by the Congress, including Kuhl. The Washington Post has a good run-down of the merits (few) and excesses (many) of the resulting bill.
An even better example of the filibuster stall is the energy bill, which was supported by 36 Republicans (Kuhl among them) when passed by the House in January. When the bill hit the Senate, it went through a "purification" that included a half-dozen cloture votes. The resulting bill lost one provision that taxed producers to finance renewable energy, and another that would have required the use of renewable sources by electric providers. The new version gained almost 60 more Republican House votes. The Oil & Gas journal has a full run-down of the final bill.
In the world of customer service, the mantra is "under-promise and over-deliver". In this session of Congress, the Democratic leadership did the opposite. They were mainly unable to deliver on the really significant expectations raised, such as a possible withdrawal from Iraq and re-instituting pay-go. Now it's up to the Democrats to sell this as the product of Republican obstinacy rather than Democratic impotence. There's some justification for that view, but the Democrats would have an easier job selling it to the general public if they had set lower expectations at the beginning of the session.
For those of you who've read this far, you might be interested in two snippets from the Messiah mentioned at the top of this post.
For He is like a refining fire:
And He shall purify:
For He is like a refiner's fire.The same harsh, Old Testament worldview dominated this year's session of Congress. The combination of Republican unity in the House, and an unprecedented use of the filibuster by the Republican minority in the Senate, served as a refiner's fire, removing whatever Republicans considered impure from Democratic bills.
And He shall purify...
This was most evident in the last-minute pre-Christmas swarm of legislation approved by Congress. It contained a mix of concessions and conglomerations, all driven by the Republican stall and the Democrat's inability to offer compromises that would find fault lines in the Republican minority. Politically, perhaps the biggest concession was the stake driven through the heart of S-CHIP expansion. Remember last month when the press was predicting that the Democrats would extend S-CHIP until September, 2008 to force a funding showdown before the election? So much for that idea: the new S-CHIP extension, passed on the last day of the session, extends S-CHIP as-is until March, 2009. The NPR headline, "Democrats Suffer Loss as House Extends SCHIP" says it all. The 2009 compromise is a white flag on an issue that was supposed to be bread-and-butter for Democrats in the next election.
The S-CHIP cave-in offers two lessons in politics. First, and as usual, it shows that money donated to "Progressive" issue-oriented groups is generally wasted. Take a look at the Americans United for Change blog, which makes no mention of the total loss suffered by an organization that spent millions for S-CHIP ads this year. Instead, Americans United has picked a new issue, the mortgage crisis, which I'm sure will yield more donations from angry contributors. Just don't ask them for results.
Second, S-CHIP shows House and Senate Republicans that short-term pain can yield long-term gain. Randy Kuhl and his colleagues took an incredible pounding in the media, yet that sound and fury signified nothing in the end. The Republicans knew that the Democrats could not abide a lapse in S-CHIP funding, so they stuck together until the day of reckoning and got what they wanted. Kuhl can argue, as he does in his most recent blog post, that he "voted for S-CHIP", and he has plenty of time before the 2008 campaign for voters to forget what happened this year.
Another major political concession was the cut in the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Unlike the original proposal, the version passed has no pay-as-you-go provision. It simply cuts the AMT and adds the $50 billion shortfall to the deficit. This abandonment of pay-go is another Democratic cave-in motivated by a deadline. If some kind of AMT cut was not approved by the end of the year, next year's tax refunds would be at stake. As it stands, the refunds might be delayed by seven weeks.
The big conglomeration at the end of the session was the Omnibus Budget Bill, which began life as the State Department and Foreign Aid appropriation. Faced with the specter of failing to pass a budget bill, the Democrats took the State bill and tacked on every appropriation bill but Defense (which had already passed). To understand how the Republicans used the refining fire of the Senate, I've added a bill history feature to Congressdb. The history for the State and Foreign Aid appropriation illustrates the refining process nicely. The original bill was rejected by Randy Kuhl and the majority of Republicans. It went through the refining fire of the Senate, and came back as a bill that was approved by the Congress, including Kuhl. The Washington Post has a good run-down of the merits (few) and excesses (many) of the resulting bill.
An even better example of the filibuster stall is the energy bill, which was supported by 36 Republicans (Kuhl among them) when passed by the House in January. When the bill hit the Senate, it went through a "purification" that included a half-dozen cloture votes. The resulting bill lost one provision that taxed producers to finance renewable energy, and another that would have required the use of renewable sources by electric providers. The new version gained almost 60 more Republican House votes. The Oil & Gas journal has a full run-down of the final bill.
In the world of customer service, the mantra is "under-promise and over-deliver". In this session of Congress, the Democratic leadership did the opposite. They were mainly unable to deliver on the really significant expectations raised, such as a possible withdrawal from Iraq and re-instituting pay-go. Now it's up to the Democrats to sell this as the product of Republican obstinacy rather than Democratic impotence. There's some justification for that view, but the Democrats would have an easier job selling it to the general public if they had set lower expectations at the beginning of the session.
For those of you who've read this far, you might be interested in two snippets from the Messiah mentioned at the top of this post.
For He is like a refining fire:
Download Messiah_Refiners_Fire.mp3 (624K)
And He shall purify:
Download Messiah_And_He_Shall_Purify.mp3 (787K)
Do The Right Thing
Fri, 12/28/2007 - 22:29 — Rottenchester
Today's news that President Bush will veto the Defense Appropriation Bill is a surprise, but the illogical rhetoric accompanying it is all too familiar. The administration objects to a provision in the bill that would allow courts to freeze Iraqi assets as part of lawsuits against Iraq. The Iraqi government opposes this measure because it would expose them to asset freezes related to litigation over Saddam Hussein's bad acts.
Despite being one of those who supported the bill, the most senior Republican on the Armed Services Committee, John Warner, said:
Despite being one of those who supported the bill, the most senior Republican on the Armed Services Committee, John Warner, said:
The president is doing the right thing [...] It's in our national security interests, and it's the right thing to try to preserve what I perceive as a strengthening of the relationship between our government and the Iraqi government.If it was the "right thing" to do this, why didn't Warner do the "right thing" and oppose the bill in committee? If the President is doing the "right thing", why did Randy Kuhl vote for the bill two weeks ago?
Various Items
Wed, 12/26/2007 - 12:50 — Rottenchester
I survived Christmas, but I'm still digesting the last few days of Congress. I also need to close out my series on the D&C. Until then, here are a few items in no particular order:
- Those of you interested in new media might want to read an interview with Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist. Craigslist is a company of about two dozen people with the goal of bringing free classified ads to the world. Money quote:
Newspapers have much bigger problems. Newspapers are going after 10% to 30% profit margins for their businesses and that hurts them more than anything. A lot of things are happening on the Internet that never happened before because the Internet is a vehicle for everyone. The mass media is no longer only for the powerful, and that's a huge change for the entire newspaper and news industry.
In the old media model, with huge presses or transmitters and large technically-adept staffs, a 20% profit margin was necessary to attract investors willing to finance the overhead in return for a share of the profit. In the new media model, major capital investments are no longer part of the picture, so media can run on a low- (or no-) profit, sustainability model. In other words, today's media can be more like a small business than a major corporation. That's a tremendous shift in the media business model that we're just starting to see nationally in sites like Craigslist or TPM Media. The shock waves of that shift are just starting to be felt in our local markets, but when they hit, it's going to be an interesting ride.
- I like watching the HBO series The Wire. The show takes on different issues in inner-city Baltimore, including the War on Drugs, Education and Unions. It's written by two veteran reporters for the Baltimore Sun. This year's theme is journalism, and it will be fascinating to see the parallels between the D&C's role in inner-city Rochester, and the Sun's in Baltimore.
- This week's Massa press conference was canceled due to the holidays.
Sweet Baby Jesus
Wed, 12/19/2007 - 09:01 — Rottenchester
Posting will continue to be light until after the baby Jesus' birthday. You would think that being the son of God would be enough for the guy, but he apparently needs two whole months of decoration, lights, singing and shopping every year in order to be satisfied that we remembered his birthday. I'm happy with a pair of socks and a bottle of scotch. And if someone mumbles a chorus of "Happy Birthday" sotto voce, I consider it a banner year.
As a non-militant atheist, I find all the "War on Christmas" rhetoric amusing. If such a war exists, it makes our debacle in Iraq look like the Marianas turkey shoot. In other words, Christmas is winning, big-time.
I live in a supposedly lily-white Christian suburb. Not so: Muslims, Hindus, Jews and Buddhists live on my street, not to mention atheists, agnostics and other assorted heathens. We all have to put up with 8 weeks of repetitive music, garish decorations, and rampant materialism. Yet when our school district tries to make Christmas break "Holiday Break", and forbids the use of obvious symbols of Christianity, some parents react as if they replaced the lunch ladies with paroled child molesters.
I believe every Christian has an absolute right to celebrate Christmas in their homes and churches. But I also think that the Hindi, Muslim and Jewish kids on my block get enough Christmas in the stores and on TV. They don't need to have more displays and activities funded by their parents' tax dollars.
Also, those who regularly genuflect in reverence towards "the market" should recognize that my neighbors shop, too. Maybe when a clerk says "Happy Holidays" instead of "Merry Christmas," my neighbors and I will feel more comfortable in the store, and we'll be more likely to buy there. That's basic capitalism, not a "war".
Well, enough of that. Even though I'm an atheist, I'm also a devoted Dad and husband, so I'm off to do yet more Christmas shopping. No Massa press conference coverage, and light posting will ensue. Baby needs some new toys.
As a non-militant atheist, I find all the "War on Christmas" rhetoric amusing. If such a war exists, it makes our debacle in Iraq look like the Marianas turkey shoot. In other words, Christmas is winning, big-time.
I live in a supposedly lily-white Christian suburb. Not so: Muslims, Hindus, Jews and Buddhists live on my street, not to mention atheists, agnostics and other assorted heathens. We all have to put up with 8 weeks of repetitive music, garish decorations, and rampant materialism. Yet when our school district tries to make Christmas break "Holiday Break", and forbids the use of obvious symbols of Christianity, some parents react as if they replaced the lunch ladies with paroled child molesters.
I believe every Christian has an absolute right to celebrate Christmas in their homes and churches. But I also think that the Hindi, Muslim and Jewish kids on my block get enough Christmas in the stores and on TV. They don't need to have more displays and activities funded by their parents' tax dollars.
Also, those who regularly genuflect in reverence towards "the market" should recognize that my neighbors shop, too. Maybe when a clerk says "Happy Holidays" instead of "Merry Christmas," my neighbors and I will feel more comfortable in the store, and we'll be more likely to buy there. That's basic capitalism, not a "war".
Well, enough of that. Even though I'm an atheist, I'm also a devoted Dad and husband, so I'm off to do yet more Christmas shopping. No Massa press conference coverage, and light posting will ensue. Baby needs some new toys.
Kuhl News Roundup
Wed, 12/19/2007 - 08:29 — Rottenchester
Randy Kuhl made today's front page [pdf] (jump [pdf]) of the Corning Leader. Kuhl gets credit for a slew of earmarks that accompanied the omnibus budget bill. Thanks to reader Elmer for sending this in. The Star-Gazette also has a story on the same topic, as well as one on the energy bill, which Kuhl supported in its final form.
Turns out that the reason they call things rumors is that they might not be true. Exile at Rochesterturning notes that Randy Kuhl did not go to Iraq after all.
Turns out that the reason they call things rumors is that they might not be true. Exile at Rochesterturning notes that Randy Kuhl did not go to Iraq after all.
