The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Tom Reed's first-quarter filing is in. He raised $151K this quarter, bringing his cash-on-hand to $287K. Reed also loaned his campaign $100K this quarter, and spent $86K.

These numbers are nothing to write home about. For comparison purposes, Eric Massa raised $277K in the first quarter of 2008.

The Washington Post has a new story out that has a number of details of Eric Massa's behavior for the past year.

Update: Politico is reporting that one Massa aide has begun a process that could lead to lawsuits being filed for sexual harassment.

One of Matt Zeller's friends sent me a Facebook message from Zeller, which was sent to Zeller's friends, mainly to raise money. Here's the non-fundraising portion:

At this point, I'm taking the next couple of days to plan, organize,
and prepare our official launch. November is just seven months away,
and we have a lot of work to do to get this campaign up and running,
and to get our message out to the voters of the 29th District.

This election is going to be about one thing: creating jobs. Our goal
is to develop and grow an economy that creates economic growth and
vitality that is both prosperous in the short term and enduring over
the long haul. I've got a boat load of great ideas on how we make that
happen – but none of them will ever get heard in Washington without
your immediate help.

Sean Carroll has posted the raw video of a lengthy interview with Tom Reed.

Reed doesn't say anything new in the interview. If you want to know what Reed thinks on an issue, you can just as easily check John Boehner or Mitch McConnell's website. But if you want to get a good picture of what Reed's like, the video is well worth a look.

Here are the tea leaves I'm reading to explain why Matt Zeller ended up with the nod to run for the 29th seat:

• Last night I was randomly polled by "Central Research" on a New York State Senate matchup: incumbent Republican Jim Alesi versus Mary Wilmot. Wilmot was one of the names mentioned for the 29th seat, so this explains where she's going.
• With the rumor that Assemblyman Joe Errigo may retire, my guess is that David Nachbar will run for that seat this Fall. Nachbar paid his dues by losing to Alesi in 2008.
• Democrats don't want to lose David Koon's seat. With the possibility of the special election either not happening, or coinciding with the September primary, a Koon run would have endangered his seat, so he's out of the 29th fight.

The Monroe County Democratic Party would rather keep Koon's seat, and put two independently wealthy self-funders up for the Alesi and Errigo seats, than take a long shot in the 29th. That's how Zeller became the sacrificial lamb in this race.

Alesi's seat is probably unwinnable, because he's both moderate and reasonably popular, but what Mary Wilmot will spend to try to take the seat amounts to a rounding error in the Wilmorite fortune. Using her money to put a dent in Alesi is an appealing prospect for the MCDC. The Errigo seat is probably gettable, and Nachbar is the best candidate that the MCDC has, so his positioning makes sense.

It ain't pretty, but I'm pretty sure that's what happened.

It took all of a couple of hours for Sean Carroll to figure out that Matthew Zeller is the Democratic candidate.

In the comments and via email, readers are asking what I know about this Finger Lakes Times story and this Star-Gazette item. Both say that Democrats have made a pick and will announce it next week.

All I know is that they're moving slowly. I have no idea who they've picked, but I assume the pick will leak out before the week is over.

Reader Joe let me know that Gannett is reporting that Paterson will not have a special election. Now CBS has picked up the same story.

Here's the problem. Gannett headlined their story "Governor won't call special election for Eric Massa's former seat". But the body of the story says:

McKeon indicated no decision has been made on whether to wait until the Nov. 2 general election to fill the seat, but she said the governor also is concerned about disenfranchising voters serving in the military overseas.

Paterson is clearly signaling that there might not be a special election, but it hasn't been announced officially.

Assemblyman David Koon has just announced that he's withdrawing from consideration for the Democratic nomination.

Sean Carroll, who appears to be the only reporter taking the 29th race seriously at the moment, reports that Mary Wilmot is out of the Democratic race.