The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Yesterday's ad on health care issues from a 527 prompted a sharp response from the Kuhl campaign. WXXI has a story on the ad and Kuhl's outrage.

As I've mentioned before, half of the game with ads from outside groups is to generate free media coverage, since they rarely make a big media buy. Targets of these ads are in a tough position. If they put out a press release contesting the ad, local media coverage will probably attract more attention than the ad itself. If they don't push back, the ad airs uncontested.

Eric Massa leads Randy Kuhl 48% to 42%, according to a Research 2000 poll taken in the 29th district Tuesday and Wednesday.

Though this poll was commissioned for the Daily Kos, Research 2000 is an independent organization and other Daily Kos/Research 2000 polls are considered high-quality products. Kos posts full crosstabs, which show that Obama is leading McCain 48-45 in the 29th. Bush beat Kerry by 14 points in the district in 2004.

The poll has a small sample size (400), with a 5% margin of error.

(via The Albany Project)

The Hornell Evening Tribune reports Randy Kuhl's reaction to the polls.

Evan Dawson at the 13-WHAM blog has an interesting post about a bit of conventional wisdom. It turns out that the "brain drain" isn't really Western New York's problem. Our real issue is that we can't attract out-of-staters.

Finally, the radio program This American Life has produced another excellent program about the economic crisis. It's by far the clearest non-partisan explanation of the credit crunch I've heard. If you haven't listened to TAL's explanation of the mortgage crisis, it's still available here.

Tomorrow night we'll be doing something new - collaborative live blogging. Around 9 p.m., Exile from the Albany Project will join me in commenting on the 13-WHAM debate.

We'll be using some new software that allows everyone to comment in real-time. It's more like IM or a chatroom, so it should be pretty interactive. If you're watching the debate and near a computer, stop in and participate.

The Massa campaign has released a quick response to Randy Kuhl's latest ad. It's embedded below:

The Massa campaign has issued a press release about Randy Kuhl's latest ad. The release points out that the "Pelosi tax plan" that Kuhl accuses Massa of supporting is actually a non-binding resolution, that Massa isn't in Congress, and, besides, Massa has his own tax plan [pdf].

All true, but here's my question: When did Nancy Pelosi become universally despised? Or, put another way: If Massa had produced a similar ad in 2006, would he have put a picture of Denny Hastert and Randy Kuhl in it?

Perhaps it's a failure of my imagination, or a reflection of my biases, but I don't think that the undecided, low-information voters who are the target of last-minute campaign ads are going to see Nancy with Eric and reach for the smelling salts.

In addition to power of the she-devil Pelosi, Kuhl's counting on that old warhorse -- "He'll raise your taxes" -- to carry him through one more battle. I'm skeptical. We're funding an endless war, rescuing banks, and we've just nationalized an insurance company. Isn't it obvious that taxes will go up?

Democrats are saying that the top 5% will bear the burden of the increase. I think that's salable in this environment. Kuhl's implied claim that he won't raise taxes just flies in the face of economic reality.

Patriot Majority, a 527 group, is running an ad attacking Randy Kuhl for his vote for tax breaks for oil companies. (via Exile at The Albany Project)

The ad is embedded below:

Health Care for America Now!, a 501(c)(4) funded by a number of union and advocacy groups, will run ads against Randy Kuhl, targeting his support of John McCain's health policy.

The nationwide ad is embedded below, but the ads shown in the 29th will have Randy Kuhl's name instead of John McCain's.

The Kuhl campaign has released a new ad, embedded below:

13-WHAM's Sean Carroll says that Friday's Massa-Kuhl debate will be broadcast at 9 p.m. on Rochester's channel 13. This will be the first non-cable Rochester-area debate for the two candidates.