The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Reader Elmer sends the front page [pdf] and jump [pdf] of two stories in today's Corning Leader.  One story is about rising gas prices.  Eric Massa is the main subject, and he states his opposition to John McCain's plan to temporarily suspend gas taxes to lower the price of gas. 

The other story is Massa and Kuhl's fundraising numbers, which includes one rationale for Kuhl's low numbers:  he started later than Massa.

The Hornell Evening Tribune also has a story on Massa and Kuhl's fundraising numbers. 

The Messenger-Post's latest editorial says that the "ball is in Kuhl's court" on debates between the two candidates.  Kuhl's reasons for waiting to schedule debates are his need to gather petition signatures and the possibility of having a primary opponent.

The real reason, which is true in almost every campaign, is that the incumbent has more to lose than the challenger in debates.  Debates also allow the voters to see the challenger and incumbent at the same level, and take some of the sheen of inevitability from the incumbent.

So, I don't blame Kuhl for waiting to schedule debates, and I understand why Massa is pushing hard to get him to commit to them. 

What I don't understand is how Kuhl's impoverished campaign is going to get its message out.  Part of the reason Kuhl won in 2006 was a last-minute blitz of TV ads in the Rochester market.   It doesn't look like he's going to be able to afford that this year.  Direct mail is also expensive.  And even the Internet costs money -- Randy doesn't even have his campaign website up yet.

Unlike expensive for-pay media, debates only cost the gas money, and they're usually well-covered by the press.  For that reason alone, I'm wondering if we'll see the Kuhl campaign decide to attend a few more this time around.

Both of the area's Gannett papers, the D&C and the Star-Gazette,  ran stories about the Massa and Kuhl money numbers.  Both quote Massa and the RNCC.  The RNCC thinks 2006 was the "worst environment for Republicans in decades". 

Update: The Messenger-Post also has a money story.  This one quotes Kuhl's confidence that he'll get his message across.

Randy Kuhl's campaign finance report is out.  Kuhl raised $110K last quarter, less than half of what Massa's total.  Kuhl has $365K cash on hand, $200K less than Massa.  Kuhl raised $47K from individuals, and $64K from PACs.

The Massa campaign has issued a press release with their first quarter fundraising numbers.  Massa raised $278K during the first three months of the year, and increased his cash on hand to $565K.

This performance is almost identical to the fourth quarter of 2007, and Massa's cash on hand is up about $150K.

Neither the Kuhl nor Massa official reports have hit the FEC website yet.

The Messenger-Post is first out of the blocks with its IRS/seniors story, which is why Randy Kuhl and Maggie Brooks went to a senior center in Pittsford last week.

Guns are a hot-button issue, especially in the rural parts of the 29th.  Will Barack Obama's recent comments about guns lead to coattail issues for Eric Massa?  I'm not an expert on the Southern Tier, but based on my experience in other rural areas, my guess is that Obama's gun comments won't do any lasting damage.

I grew up in a small town on the plains where guns and hunting were just a part of life.  Our family, like most other families, had guns -- in our case, a rifle and a couple of shotguns.  My Dad didn't pass down the hunting tradition to his sons.  He had done some hunting as a boy on the farm where he grew up, and he decided it wasn't for him.  His contribution to our gun education was a few serious talks about gun safety when his sons got old enough to do a little casual hunting.   The biggest thing I ever killed was a prairie dog, and, like my old man, I decided it wasn't for me. 

My experience is that most people take their hunting and gun ownership seriously, because a gun is an interesting and sometimes dangerous tool that must be treated with respect.  But, like every other human pursuit, some make gun ownership and hunting the center of their existence.  When I was growing up, these people had bumper stickers on their pickups making predictions about their cold, dead hands.  In our small town, these people were tolerated.  They certainly weren't celebrated, because, frankly, they were a little scary. 

So, when Obama talks about clinging to guns, I'll wager that every single person back home knows exactly what he means.  In fact, if they're like me, they can put a face on it (I'm thinking of you, 8th-grade civics teacher/NRA member). 

Is that condescending?  I thought to condescend was to imagine something false about the "little people".  The phenomenon that Obama describes is real.  The condescension I see is from media elites whose idea of hunting was shaped by watching Warner Brothers' cartoons on Saturday mornings.

Obama's real position on guns is a little better than average for a Democrat, but, like Hillary Clinton, it isn't appealing to rural populations.  Proposed restrictions on guns and ammo sales at gun shows are a pain in the ass for rural voters, who resent being inconvenienced for what they think is a big city problem.  The NRA and other groups try to spin assault weapon bans as the first step towards government confiscation, but most reasonable hunters I know don't hunt with AK-47s or AR-15s.  That said, anyone who's ever fired a rifle or shotgun knows that the firepower available in "hunting" guns can do sufficient damage in the wrong hands, so the whole assault ban seems kind of silly.

Even though Obama's position on guns isn't what most hunters want to hear, most of them understand that you don't get everything you want from a politician.  They also understand that guns are here to stay, no matter what the fear-mongers say. My 8th-grade civics teacher will not vote for Obama, but that's true about any Democrat on the national stage.  Unlike him, the majority of gun owners will weigh Obama's position on guns along with the rest of his views.

Eric Massa, whose position on gun control is "no additional federal regulation", probably won't be hurt by what Obama said, since their positions are different.  If you want some evidence that Massa's strategy on guns works, consider Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD-AL), Earl Pomeroy (D-ND-AL), Tim Johnson (D-SD), Kent Conrad (D-ND) or Byron Dorgan (D-ND).  There are probably more hunters in the Dakotas than in all of New York State, and 5 of 6 of their national representatives are Democrats.

Not much happening in the 29th media this weekend. 

The Corning Leader has a story on Eric Massa's AFL-CIO endorsement.  I had missed the AFL-CIO's claim of 56,000 members in the 29th when I posted the original press release earlier this week. 

WETM quotes Randy Kuhl saying that he's reassured by President Bush's statement that we're not going to be in the war "forever". 

As I wrote earlier, the Rochester area did not experience a housing bubble.  Yesterday, I had a conversation with a former mortgage broker turned loan officer, and it's pretty clear that this area didn't escape the sub-prime financing boom, and that our market will be feeling the impact of the sub-prime bust.   Here's some of what this person experienced:

• The bulk of recent mortgage business handled by this broker was sub-prime, meaning that the house was financed 100% by the bank.  These loans were more lucrative for the banks because of the extra fees and interest the bank could charge for no-collateral mortgages.
• Many loans were "stated income" loans, which means the borrower stated their current income and did not provide any income verification.  Industry slang for these loans is "liars loans".
  
• Some home equity line of credit companies employed appraisers who routinely inflated home values.  In practice, this means that homeowners are unable to refinance their homes to escape the high interest of their second mortgage, because the true appraised value of their home is less than what they owe on their first and second mortgages.
• There have been a good number of "short sales", where the bank allows the borrower to settle their mortgage for the price of their house, even if that house price is less than the mortgage balance. 
  

With 20-20 hindsight, banks are clamping down, hard.  Liars loans are a thing of the past, income must be verified, and mortgage companies have completely disconnected appraisers from brokers to reduce fraud.

The end result is that loans are harder to get, and those with any credit or income issues are immediately shunted to the FHA.  In Rochester, this means fewer buyers, and also that marginal property (poorly maintained, bad location) is selling for far less than it did a short time ago.  In addition, the market is further depressed by short sales, because the bank and borrower are motivated to sell the house quickly and for less than previous market values.

Though this conversation is a sample of one, it's certainly consistent with what I've read is happening with financing in bubble areas.  Mortgage companies were offering more credit that their customers could handle.  As I noted earlier, government can't really fix that unless they continue the questionable lending practices that got us into this mess in the first place.  We're going to have to ride this one out.

The Massa Campaign sends an article from yesterday's Corning Leader [pdf] that includes Massa's reaction to the Petraeus testimony as well as the Columbian free trade treaty.  Massa's position on Iraq remains unchanged.  He opposes the free trade agreement, which Kuhl supports  Today's Corning Leader [pdf] quotes Randy Kuhl on Iraq.  He says that progress is being made, characterizes the surge as a "success" and touts economic gains.

Randy Kuhl's website has a press release about an event held today at the Pittsford Senior Center.  He appeared with County Executive Maggie Brooks and representatives from the IRS and AARP to emphasize that seniors must file a return to get a stimulus check.  Maggie Brooks has nothing to do with federal taxes, but come April 15, the media is searching for stories on taxes, and this one will probably make the tee vee. (via Rochesterturning)