The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

When Randy Kuhl announced the formation of a "Veterans for Kuhl" group, I ignored it, just as I ignore most press releases from both candidates.  However, when Roll Call ("The Newspaper of Capitol Hill") picks it up and treats it like news, I guess I need to point out the obvious. 

The press release begins with the claim that the group is a "non-partisan committee".  It ends with the contact phone number for the group, which happens to be Kuhl's campaign headquarters.  Res Ipsa Loquitur.

There's nothing wrong with the Kuhl campaign creating "Group X for Kuhl".  Campaigns do it all the time.  But there's no evidence that "Veterans for Kuhl" represents an independent groundswell of Vets for Kuhl, which would, indeed, be news.

Maj Gen (Ret) John Batiste has is now on the record in support of Democratic control of Congress: 

"The best thing that can happen right now is for one or both of our houses to go Democratic so we can have some oversight," [...] Batiste describes himself as a "lifelong Republican." But now, he said, "It is time for a change."

Though the Massa campaign has used Batiste's written and on-air critiques of Kuhl in advertisements and debates, Batiste has not officially endorsed Massa or any other candidate as far as I know. 

According to Rochesterturning, Randy Kuhl is airing a new ad attacking Eric Massa on Social Security.  I'll post a video and a review once I see it.  Update:  Video after the break.

Ever-alert reader Rich forwards the WROC (Rochester CBS Affiliate) coverage of  Eric Massa's press conference on the closing of the acute psychiatric unit at the Canandaigua VA hospital.  Massa's sending a letter to someone at the VA, which by itself is not news.  What is news is Bob Van Wicklin's dumb response.   Let's unpack it:

Our opponent is being highly irresponsible to suggest that services at the Canandaigua VA will be any less that what they are today. 

I'd say that faxing a letter to the VA and holding a press conference is probably more futile than irresponsible.  More importantly, was WROC being irresponsible last week when they broke the story?  How about the D&C?

He's preying on the fears of our veterans.

Generally, "preying on fears" is a charge that sticks when a politician says that some scary event might happen.  This event has happened -- what was feared has occurred.  You can't "prey" on occurrences.

...the facts are that there will be an increase in services at the Canandaigua VA and it will be designated as a national center of excellence for post-traumatic stress disorder.

As usual with Van Wicklin, once we get past the ad hominem, it is time for the spin.  If this is really a fact -- and facts have been sparse in the VA announcements -- it probably doesn't address the issue Massa and the media have raised.    If "increase in services" means more sub-acute beds, as I can only imagine it does (or Van Wicklin wouldn't have been so vague), it still doesn't make up for the loss of acute beds.    Loss of acute beds is loss of service, period, and all the name-calling and spin in the world won't change that fact.

(Update:  A 10/25 D&C story quotes Van Wicklin as saying that Kuhl wanted the VA to wait to close the acute unit until a 22-bed sub-acute unit opens.  It's the range of services, not the number of beds, that counts.  Also, as Rich wrote to point out, the D&C article says that Kuhl knew about the acute unit closing last week and stayed mum about it. )

In a piece about Amo Houghton's endorsement in the City News Blog, reporter Krestia DeGeorge mentions a Kuhl press release about Massa's fundraiser with "Liberal Tax and Spend" Nancy Pelosi in New York City.  DeGeorge wonders if a NYC fundraiser with Pelosi is smart, given the Kuhl campaign's attempt to paint Massa as an "outsider".

My take is that the Pelosi fundraiser will have less detrimental effect to the Massa campaign than the Vice-President's visit last month.  Like Cheney, Pelosi mainly attracts the ire of base voters who would never consider switching tickets.  Unlike the Cheney visit, Pelosi is less well-known figure, she's less widely disliked, and her fundraiser in NYC didn't make the Rochester news.

It's worth nothing that Kuhl made no similar fuss when Massa went to New York in August to participate in a fundraiser with Jack Murtha, and Massa didn't make a peep when Republican Majority Leader John Boehner raised funds in Horseheads that same month.  Massa raised a ruckus about Cheney because he wanted to keep Iraq front and center.  Similary, Kuhl's complaint is tied to his campaign's seemingly single-minded focus on Massa's alleged desire to raise taxes.

Kuhl's press release repeats a claim similar to one he made in the debates, that Massa

will raise taxes with the very first bill he cosponsors, the socialized medicine bill to raise taxes at least $24,000 on the average family in the 29th District.

That $24,000 figure is derived by dividing the total cost of healthcare in the United States by the number of families and calling that number a "tax".   Of course, that number doesn't take into account the current cost of health insurance.  That cost would disappear under single-payer health care ("socialized medicine").   The cost of single-payer is up in the air, but one thing is certain:  it will not cost every family 24,000 additional dollars, or anything close to that number.

This is another walk on the stupid side, and what's galling to me is that there's no need for Kuhl to do it.  There are so many other, more reasonable arguments to be made against single-payer health care.  But today's talking point is taxes, and everything has to be hammered into that mold.

Regular readers might notice that I don't generally link to or discuss press releases.  That's for two reasons.  First, most press releases are full of bullshit, no matter who issues them.  Second, there's usually an elephant in the room that goes unmentioned.  In this case, it's the House leadership.  Randy Kuhl wouldn't attend a fundraiser with Denny Hastert in Timbuktu or Alpha Ceti 7, not to mention New York City.  The very fact that Massa is willing to fundraise with his party's leadership is the story Kuhl's press release, and City News, ignores.

Today's Rochester D&C has a story on the importance of the war in Iraq to the race in the 29th.   The headline ("Iraq becomes albatross for Republican Candidates") pretty much says it all.

The Rural Patriot points out that the National Journal has moved the 29th from 36th to 33rd in its ranking of hot races.   The 29th has been steadily inching up in this ranking.  The new Cook and Rothenberg ratings released over the weekend reclassified a number of House races, the 29th not among them.

The headline may seem like faint praise (like "Immanuel Kant:  Not Dumb" or "Kim Novak:  Not Ugly"), but I think it's about the highest compliment I can pay an ad in the current environment.

When Randy Kuhl came out with an ad claiming that "Eric Massa has a plan...to raise taxes", he assumed that everyone listening was stupid.  Because who, other than someone who's quite dim, would think that a politician would create a plan to raise taxes?   Kuhl might as well have claimed that "Eric Massa has a plan...to turn puppies into hamburger."   No sane politician has a plan to raise taxes or slaughter puppies, and any viewer of even minimal intelligence knows it.

Kuhl didn't even bother to use the common "Eric Massa says he won't raise taxes, but..." formulation. That phrasing would have at least assumed that the viewer has an IQ above room temperature, but is easily fooled by the machinations of a clever politician. 

Like most negative commericals, Kuhl's was produced with the hope of a two-fer.  Not only did he try to tar Massa with a ridiculous claim, he hoped to goad Massa into a negative response. "Randy Kuhl says that I'll raise taxes, but Kuhl's deficit has raised taxes on our children, etc."

Here's where Massa was smart.  When your opponent says something hysterical, you can either rise to the same level of hysteria, or you can make a calm, positive assertion that illustrates the stupidity of your opponent's claim.  Massa said, "My family is overtaxed and underserved, just like yours."  Translation:  I know, and you know, that taxes are too high.  Raising them would be stupid.  Neither of us are that dumb.

Massa's ad opens with  "[I] chose to raise my family in upstate New York, just like you." That's a calm, positive rebuttal of the "carpetbagger" accusation that's been floating around.  Massa could have chosen to explain why Navy Vets can't call anyplace home, but his one positive sentence is far more powerful, and probably more widely appreciated, than a recitation of his service record.

I also think that the use of Amo Houghton's first-person endorsement by the Kuhl campaign is not stupid, but it's not as clever as Massa's latest ad. We learn that Amo likes Randy, and Randy knows the area.  These are Randy's known strengths.  It would have been better to use Amo's time to say something positive about one of Randy's perceived weaknesses.

The church I attended as a kid issued two kinds of collection envelopes. There were white ones for every Sunday, and a few brightly colored ones for special occasions.  If the bishop, or the starving kids in Africa, needed some extra cash, they'd get it in a mint green or blaze orange envelope from the true believers.

If only it were that easy for politicians.  Instead of spending a few cents and getting big bucks in return, the candidates in the 29th have to truck in political celebrities to motivate their core faithful. 

The Massa campaign's big name last week was Joseph Wilson, Valerie Plame's husband.  Tonight, Massa's in New York City at a fundraiser [pdf] with Nancy Pelosi.  Not to be outdone, the Kuhl campaign will take part in an event featuring Laura Bush sometime this week.  (Update:  The Bush event is a meet-and-greet on 10/28 in Greece, NY with Kuhl, Jim Walsh (NY-25) and Tom Reynolds (NY-26).)

Eric Massa's new TV ad begins with the statement that he

chose to raise my family in upstate New York, just like you.  My family is overtaxed and underserved by government, just like yours.  It's wrong that professional politicians mismanaged the war, and now our troops are paying the price.

The "professional politicians" line is delivered over a shot of Kuhl and Bush juxtaposed with pictures of Cheney and Rumsfeld.  The ad quickly switches to shots of vets and their families:

I believe that we, as a grateful nation, should ensure that our troops, veterans and their families should have what they need. It's time we should do more than just wish for a better life, we should vote for one.

It's interesting (and refreshing) that both candidates have returned to positive ads after fielding negative ones.  No YouTube yet - I'll post it when it's available.  Video after the break:

The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (RCCC) has spent $47 million on advertising in Congressional races in the last 6 weeks. Congressional Quarterly has a rundown [pdf] of spending from early September to October 19, and here is today's additional $8 million spent. None of it was spent for Kuhl or against Massa.

The Democrats aren't spending in the 29th, either. At the moment, they've limited their ad buys to an effort to lock in a 15-seat shift in Congress.

Judging from the money trail, Republicans are spending to shore up weak seats, and Kuhl isn't vulnerable enough to trigger an investment. The Democrats are throwing down on turnovers, and the 29th is too big a gamble for them to place a bet. Kuhl and Massa are on their own, and 29th voters have so far been spared from a spate of party-funded negative ads.