The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Randy Kuhl was part of a unanimous New York delegation vote for the Medicaid Safety Net Act eariler this week. This bill extends a number of deadlines for program cuts in Medicaid. Since it passed by a veto-proof majority, and because it is under veto threat from the White House, this sets up a possible veto override vote, assuming the bill passes the Senate intact.

Randy Kuhl's popular predecessor Amo Houghton, who retired after nine terms, has once again endorsed Kuhl for Congress, according to WETM-TV.  Hougton's take on Kuhl's tenure:  "outstanding".

This is a rant, but it's relevant to the 29th.  Those interested can continue after the jump.

Others might want to check out Kathleen Edwards' album Failer.  It covers the same themes.

Yesterday, in addition to the Pennsylvania mess (more on that anon), there was a special congressional election in a super-Republican Mississippi-1.  The NRCC spent $292K in this race.  That's 4% of their total cash-on-hand.  The DCCC spent $142K on their race.  That's .3% of their cash-on-hand.  (3/10ths of 1%).   The Democrat in the race lost by 2%. 

Over at Rochesterturning, Stlo7 carries a little DCCC water with this comment:

I’m not sure “could of” or “should of” plays here. [...]

Bottom line - this presents an opportunity to continue to bleed the NRCC dry continuing in Mississippi through November.

Plus they still might win the run-off.

Strategically, the DCCC wants to bleed the NRCC dry so they are electorally ineffective in November. This is part of that strategy and it seems to be working. [...]

I don't mean to pick on Stlo7 -- he's a hard-working, smart guy.  But this attitude is what's wrong with the Democratic party.  Any failure is reasoned away with poisonous "failure is actually part of our devious plan" logic.  This attitude allows incompetents to continue to run the party and focus attention away from quality party-building activities. 

The reality in MS-1 is that special elections generally have low turnout, that the closeness of this election was due in large part to a "bitter" split in the Republican party over who to run for this supposedly safe seat.  This election will be a wake-up call for Republicans who stayed home, and it's much less likely that the next special will be as close.  Any rational observer must see MS-1 as a missed opportunity for the DCCC.  So what if the NRCC spent more?  They avoided a catastrophic loss. 

That's not "bleeding" -- it's having the guts to take a risk by wagering a good part of your precious warchest, and getting a return on your investment.   The bleeders here are the DCCC, who made a classic bad bet:  it's a rounding error on their enormous bank account, but it also was just little enough to lose. 

The DCCC is supposedly "under new management" under Chris Van Hollen, but I think the FAIL-o-tron 6000 is still ensconced somewhere deep in the bowels of DCCC HQ.  The FAIL-o-tron, for those unfamiliar with the technology, is a device powered completely by failure, and is used to predict the next Democratic move.  Originally, the FAIL-o-tron was fed the tears of homely girls who weren't asked to prom, but over the years its power was greatly increased as it ingested copies of the Starr report mixed in with Pets.com stock certificates.  Today, it is running hot on Countrywide Finance foreclosure notifications.

Consultants like Bob Shrum and Mark Penn have a direct connection to the FAIL-o-tron embedded in their tiny lizard brains.  The FAIL-o-tron tells them that process is for the little people, that kissing the asses of big donors is the only way to raise money, and that  Democrats can win by hanging on to "blue" states and forgetting everyone else.

So, when Barack Obama starts a grassroots campaign that focuses on winning the primary by (shock, horror) registering huge numbers of new voters and turning them out, when Obama ignores big donors and powers his campaign on millions of little donations, and when Obama runs hard in every state, even Idaho, then the FAIL-o-tron has a failure script ready to go. 

That script is very like the DCCC's.  It begins with the "devious plan" rhetoric.  Hillary's devious plan was to ignore caucuses to focus on a decisive win in February March (oops, I guess it's May now).  The devious plan was accompanied by a constantly changing message, another FAIL-o-tron special, since it is calibrated to vary its output based on slight, meaningless poll changes.  In addition, the FAIL-o-tron has exquisite self-protection mechanisms, so nobody with a F-o-t implant gets fired.  Despite screwing the pooch like no other, Penn is still an employee of the Clinton campaign.

The FAIL-o-tron is hard at work in Monroe County.  After the MCDC's inability to field a candidate for county exec, nothing happened.  The same bumblers are still bumbling along.  When Town of Mendon Republicans lost a couple of city races, the Monroe County chair canned the entire committee.  I think it's immensely telling that the reaction at Rochesterturning was to search for some reason why this wasn't fair.  They didn't ask why their own party was unable to accomplish the same task.

In the 29th, the DCCC's FAIL-o-tron dictated that there's no way that Eric Massa could win in 2006, so Massa got little support.  Today, that story seems to be changing, but the DCCC F-o-t's residual prom-rejection tears remember the pain, and it's scared of losing.  The FAIL-o-tron will probably dictate a token contribution like the MS-1 race.

I'd like to be mad at the FAIL-o-tron, but it's just a machine.  I'm disappointed when smart Democrats start to take its bullshit seriously.  We need to stop drinking this weak Kool Aid.  The DCCC fucked up in MS-1.  It's not the most tragic fuckup in recent memory, but it's a legitimate fuckup, and I'm calling it what it is.

If you want to know the difference between the more affluent and suburban Northern 29th, and the less affluent and more rural Southern Tier, look no further than this story in today's Corning Leader.  The town of Bath, located a few miles from Randy Kuhl's home in Hammondsport, is reeling after Wal-Mart decided not to build a superstore there.

Two years ago, Wal-Mart was interested in building a superstore in Lima, just over the district border.  Residents in nearby Mendon, a Rochester exurb full of sprawling homes and horse paddocks, began a campaign against Wal-Mart that has been successful.

Today, there's no superstore in Lima, and Muffy and Biff are happy that they can still drive their Volvo to the local hardware store in Mendon to buy fencing wire for their stable.  There's no superstore in Bath, and the town's deputy supervisor is "disappointed, very disappointed."

Eric Massa and Randy Kuhl are both addressing the issue of higher gas prices. 

The Kuhl take is the same as the rest of the Republican caucus: it's Nancy Pelosi's fault.  If you're interested in the tortured logic by which Kuhl arrives at this view, here's his floor speech.   The sum total of Kuhl's "argument", which is cribbed from his caucus, is that Pelosi said that Democrats would lower gas prices and they haven't.  Ergo, it's all Pelosi's fault.  I don't think anyone's buying:  unless the use of botox somehow depletes the world's oil supply, Nancy is in the clear.

Massa's view is as follows:

The source of this problem is clear - Randy Kuhl and far too many Washington insiders have allowed Big Oil to gouge us at the pump. To solve this problem, we must stop the George W. Bush Big Oil handouts and start investing in real energy independence for America, not real obnoxious profits for Exxon Mobil.

I agree with Massa that the subsidies and tax breaks for big oil make no sense, especially when oil is over $100/barrel, and they should be ended at once.

But here's the unpleasant fact:  the only thing that causes us to stop using so much gasoline, and to invest in energy independence, is high gas prices.  For the first time since 1991, and the eighth time since 1951, gas consumption is down in the United States.

"Sustained higher gasoline prices are beginning to show up in lower gasoline consumption,” said Tancred Lidderdale, an analyst for the Energy Information Administration.

While I agree with Massa that, in theory, the government could implement an energy independence program, it's too late for that.  We're like the fat smoker who just had a heart attack.  We've known for decades what we're supposed to do, but we will only do it under influence of tremendous pain and fear.

Jim Hopkins, editor of Gannettblog, has written a couple of posts that might be of interest to those following the fortunes of the 29th's "paper of record", the Democrat and Chronicle.

Jim notes that the D&C is a two-time winner of the Gannett in-house diversity award.  He also wonders if Gannett's focus on diversity has yielded the results they're shooting for.

Jim also looks at the conundrum of "resources".  A resource shortage is one of the excuses given for the light coverage of the 29th at the D&C.  Jim relates his experiences at another Gannett property, the Idaho Statesman, which is now owned by McClatchy (emphasis mine):

The Boise paper employed about 65 folks in its newsroom when I worked there in 1991-96; I suspect employment under McClatchy hasn't changed much. But my experience, working for one of the best editors I've known, shows that a small number of staffers, managed well, can produce very good work. The editor, John Costa, had come to the Statesman from Florida's St. Petersburg Times. Costa was an outsider; he had not worked his way up through Gannett, so his hiring was a little unusual.

Costa was an old-fashioned First Amendment journalist. Over and over, he preached the importance of using freedom of information laws to hold powerful people accountable. Once, for example, when I was reporting on a state prison story, I found myself in a federal courtroom, hearing a judge about to seal an important court document from public view. During a hearing break, I called Costa and asked what to do. He told me to return to the courtroom, and ask the judge to reconsider. When the hearing resumed, I stood up at the back of the very big courtroom, and called out to the judge -- startling the assembled attorneys. (In response, the judge offered a compromise.)

Costa's approach to producing great journalism was simple: Take the best stories, assign them to the newsroom's most talented people -- then get out of the way, and let them do their jobs. He believed readers would remember big, impactful stories long after they'd forgotten the routine stuff we produce daily, just to fill tomorrow's paper. If a reporter was working on a project, and Costa saw her name attached to a daily on that morning's budget, he'd demand to know why. 

That last post was the first in a series that will be cross-posted at a new site, WNYCongress.rocplanet.com.  WNYCongress is an "aggregator" or "planet" that brings together blog posts from area bloggers interested in NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29 races.  The goal of WNYCongress is to publish regular summaries and breaking news for those who are interested in the races but don't have time to spend reading every single post on area blogs.

Rocplanet is another project of mine, so if people have other ideas for planets, I'm all ears.

The 2008 cycle in the 29th district has been a much different story than the midterm election two short years ago.  While incumbent Randy Kuhl is still going to be hard to beat in this heavily Republican district, the 2006 efforts of challenger Eric Massa have set the stage for a much tougher fight this cycle.

In April 2006, former Navy Commander Massa had raised $250K and was just beginning to get his campaign  organization together.  This cycle, Massa is pushing $900K, he's had campaign staff on board for months, and he's become a fixture as the head of the loyal opposition in the Southern Tier. 

In 2006, at the end of his Freshman term, Randy Kuhl's fundraising report was full of "automatic" PAC donations from corporations that had business with the committees upon which he sits.  Kuhl also received some money from labor because of his pro-labor history in the New York Senate.  This time around, Eric Massa has already garnered an AFL-CIO early endorsement, and Kuhl is $150K off his 2006 moneymaking pace.

One of the cornerstones of Kuhl's 2006 campaign was his proud claim that he held yearly constituent meetings in every town in the 29th.  In the Northern 29th, which contains the affluent, more Democratic Rochester suburbs, those meetings were the subject of anti-war protests in 2007.  This year, Kuhl changed the format of those meetings to constituent meetings, by appointment only.  This move has been controversial and certainly will be a campaign issue.

In 2006, Kuhl's twenty-year relationship with the Southern Tier media generally guaranteed that his press releases and conferences were well-covered, and that his message went out without being challenged.  Today, while Kuhl's minor photo ops still generate press, stories based on his substantive press releases are usually contested with quotes from Eric Massa.  Kuhl's op-eds are also balanced by Massa op-eds or letters to the editor.  Massa is often quoted in Southern Tier papers when reporters need a local opinion on national issues like Iraq, or if they want a prominent Democrat's view on the primary contest. 

Media coverage in the Northern 29th is a different story.  Because Monroe County (Rochester and its suburbs) contains parts of four Congressional Districts, Kuhl or Massa are infrequently mentioned in the local media.  Print coverage by the dominant local paper, Gannett's Democrat and Chronicle, is especially light after rounds of cutbacks and resource re-allocation.  Television coverage is also rationed between the four area seats, and neither Massa nor Kuhl spend much time on Monroe County screens.

Local party support in the 29th is generally weak for Democrats and strong for Republicans.  The Monroe County Democratic Party's strength comes from urban Rochester, which isn't part of the 29th.  In the recent legislative elections, Democrats fielded some good candidates but were still mainly beaten in the suburbs.  Part of the reason for this loss was the inability of the sclerotic MCDC organization to field a candidate for County Executive.  This allowed incumbent Maggie Brooks to use her warchest to retain a one-vote majority in the county legislature. 

Though Massa can expect almost zero support from the weak and inwardly-focused MCDC, he got an unexpected boost from Brooks, whose misnamed FAIR tax-reallocation plan is enormously unpopular in the suburbs.  Suburban school districts were recently victorious in a court battle to overturn the plan, which would have caused multi-million dollar shortfalls at schools that regularly make nationwide top-100 lists.

The Southern Tier Democratic Party organizations have generally had it tough in the most Republican part of New York State.  In Corning, Massa's home, Democratic Mayor Frank Coccho lost a re-election bid in 2007, and there are few Democrats in city or county offices in the rest of the Southern Tier.  As a charismatic leader who actively participates in city and county elections, Massa's popularity with Southern Tier Democrats remains high.  Massa's hard work on behalf of local committees was rewarded with speedy and unanimous endorsements by Southern Tier committees when David Nachbar, a Rochester businessman, began organizing his quickly-aborted primary challenge. 

As a fixture in Southern Tier politics for more than two decades, Randy Kuhl  can expect the same high level of support in 2008 from Southern Tier Republicans as he's enjoyed almost 30 years of State Senate and Congressional races.  He will also get a boost from Steve Minarik's Monroe County Republican Party.  Minarik, a highly-disciplined and ruthless pro, recently purged the Republican committee in the town of Mendon, an affluent Monroe suburb, after that party lost some seats in the town election.  Minarik's housecleaning and leadership will serve Kuhl well, and he can expect strong turnout from 29th district Republicans in Monroe County and the Southern Tier.

With no primary challenge expected in either party, Kuhl and Massa will be able to concentrate their efforts on the Fall election.  Massa has already been challenging Kuhl to debates at every opportunity.   At this point in the race, it appears that Republicans are unable to field good candidates in NY-25 and NY-26.  This means that the 29th  might be the hardest fought contest in New York this Fall.

The Hornell Evening Tribune covers Randy Kuhl and Eric Massa's positions on gas prices.  This is a good story and worth reading in its entirety.  It's also notable for this Kuhl quote about the McCain proposal for a gas tax holiday:

“The effect I’m concerned about is loss of revenue,” Kuhl said. “That loss would be covered by the general fund, so there would be a lessening of the impact, but I don’t like the idea of building future debt for our children.”

Kuhl, the Republican in the race, rarely acknowledges the massive national debt.

The Wellsville Daily Reporter has a story with photo of Kuhl presenting a DAR good citizen award.  Some commenters on earlier fundraising stories have noted that it appears that Kuhl doesn't want to fundraise.  But in the Southern Tier, where free publicity like this story is plentiful for an incumbent, perhaps Kuhl's decision to spend more time at photo ops rather than on the phone begging for money makes some sense.  And remember, this publicity is all on Uncle Sam's dime.

Yesterday's Corning Leader says this about Kuhl's lackluster fundraising:

One possible explanation for the discrepancy in fund raising numbers is the length of time the two candidates have been officially in the race.  While it was widely speculated Kuhl would run for reelection, he did not officially kick off his re-election campaign until March.

Kuhl kicked off his 2006 campaign at about the same time as this year's campaign.  According to his Q1 2006 report, he raised $764K by the end of March, 2006.  His latest report shows that he's raised $606K over the same period this cycle.  He's raised $160K less in a comparable period, and his cash on hand is down roughly $75K.

In contrast, Massa raised $255K by this time in the 2006 cycle.  He's raised $868K this time.

Kuhl faces a more experienced, more well-known, and better-financed candidate this cycle, and he does so with less cash than he had last cycle.  This is grim news for the Kuhl campaign, and no spin will change that fact.