The weak primary performance of Barbara Cubin, a Republican incumbent in the very red state of Wyoming, has big-time political analysts like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato standing up to take notice. Cubin's district is redder than the 29th -- Cook rates it at R+19 (a 19 point Republican bias) versus the 29th's R+5 -- and Cubin has more seniority than Kuhl. If the race for Dick Cheney's old seat in Congress is competitive, then what about the 29th?
Though the 29th garners some mention when weak incumbents are discussed, it is still generally ranked in the second tier of competitive races. Sabato's just-released ferocious forty most competitive Congressional races doesn't include it. The Congressional Quarterly ranks it "Republican Favored", and Cook calls it [pdf] "Lean Republican".
Kuhl's recent activity reflects this conventional wisdom. Kuhl attacks his opponent exclusively through his spokesman. He hasn't agreed to substantial debates, nor has he changed his campaigning schedule. Unlike his colleague Rep John Sweeney (NY-20), he didn't lawyer up to fight the airing of the MoveOn ads. Overall, Kuhl is behaving like an incumbent with a solid lead.
I think this race is closer than the pundits realize, but that's just a hunch. Unlike Senate races, which are polled into the ground, House races like the 29th aren't frequently measured. Kuhl doesn't have a primary challenger this year. So, barring some poll that I don't know about, the next possibility for an eye-opener is the new money numbers, due out at the end of the month.
Comments
Did you see this at Cook?
"Other seats in danger include Reps. Richard Pombo (CA-11), Jean Schmidt (OH-02), Don Sherwood (PA-10), Randy Kuhl (NY-29) and Marilyn Musgrave (CO-04). For more analysis click here."
I read that, but I can't tell if Cook is going to change the 29th's rating because of it. Sabato also mentioned the Cubin race in his analysis and didn't change Cubin's or Kuhl's rating. I don't see the big guys changing their ranking without hard evidence, like a poll.