Eric Massa's weekly diary reports that internal campaign polls show the race in the 29th as a dead heat. This is only the second public report of polling data in the 29th - the first was in April. Both have been by the Massa campaign, and both show the race in a dead heat. Neither the Kuhl campaign nor a third party has released a poll in this race, so we'll have to make do with this one, while considering the source.
Comments
No way. Hate to say it but this is gonna be, at minimum, Randy 55%. Easily. Mr. Massa doesn't have the cash, though he certainly has the moxie, and I am v e r y skeptical of this poll. If it was a 'dead heat,' the Nationals would be sinking some dollars into it. Shame they're not. Anyway, I stand by my prediction.
I'm not ready to write this race off, but there's no reason to believe that it's a dead heat based on one side's poll.
We have 6 weeks to go - that's a long time. In '94 and '74 there were a lot of districts that turned over on the basis of voter dissatisfaction, bucking historical trends. In addition, the role of the 'burbs in the 29th isn't well-understood by anyone. Finally, we're going to see a turnout campaign from both sides, instead of just the Republicans.
Eric Massa's a great candidate while Kuhl puts what George Bush first, and everybody knows it. I think the wave of momentum that our side is riding will be enough to overcome the money advantage the Republican incumbents have.