Without polls in the 29th, it's hard to judge how base Republican voters, who are key to Kuhl's election, are feeling. One interesting indicator is Bob Lonsberry, a conservative radio commentator. Bob's Wednesday column is a good example of the trouble Kuhl faces with his base.
The theme of Bob's column was that base voters have a lot of justification for staying home, but they should instead go and vote for Republicans as the lesser of two evils. Money quotes:
The only thing that can bring all the base home is the dread and loathing surrounding any discussion of a "Speaker Pelosi" or a "Majority Leader Reid." To have one or both of those whiners setting the agenda of Congress would be a living hell for a genuine Republican.
So it boils down to this: While Republicans will certainly backstab you, Democrats will backstab you with a bigger knife.
[snip]
We can't bring ourselves to enthusiastically support the party that has so poorly represented us in recent years, but we can hold our noses and vote against candidates who will help Nancy Pelosi become speaker of the House.
I listened to a good part of Bob's show the next day, and I heard no real defense of the Republican Congressional leadership in his discussion of the Foley scandal. In fact, he spent a lot of time debunking the notion that a Democratic conspiracy was behind the release of the emails.
Bob made another observation in the comments section of the column:
elections are only local for fools and the politicians who try to take advantage of fools. we are voting on our national trade balance, our borders, the war with terror, the national debt and budget, the cancer of welfare. those are the issues that count, and they are all national.
Bob's beliefs are hard to peg: on some issues, he's a values conservative. On others, he's a libertarian conservative. But he usually takes his position based on a principle rather than just swallowing Republican talking points. His recent columns and shows reflect the disappointment of the principled conservative base, and they're an ill omen for Rep. Kuhl. Voting against something as nebulous as "Speaker Pelosi" doesn't energize values voters.