The Foley scandal has all the trappings of a story that will occupy the media for days and perhaps weeks. Republicans are calling for the resignation of the leadership in Congress. Hours of video of Foley making hypocritical statements are circulating, and there are probably more IM transcripts to come.
Closer to home, it's clear that Tom Reynolds is in big trouble. What about Kuhl and Massa?
For Randy Kuhl, being a back-bencher is a huge blessing in this matter. If he has any political sense, he'll refrain from buying Hastert's silly distinction between knowledge of the "overly friendly" letters and the sexually explicit IMs. That brand of b.s. won't play the Northern 29th, where every suburban parent's spider sense is exquisitely tuned to the signs of the potential molester. Kuhl should demand investigations and accountability, and that's it.
If he plays it smart, the only damage that I see to the Kuhl campaign is a further lessening of enthusiasm in his base.
Though one might think that Massa would benefit from the fallout of the scandal, given his campaign's current status, I think Foleygate is a wash at best. All of the Rochester media market's limited bandwith will be occupied by Reynolds-centric Foley coverage. Perhaps the Corning/Elmira markets will spend more time on the race in the 29th, but I doubt that Rochester will see any in-depth Massa/Kuhl pieces in the near future. In addition, Rochester will be bombarded with ever-more strident Davis or Reynolds ads, which will just increase political fatigue as well as voter confusion.
Massa's own poll shows his name recognition at 39%. Anything that keeps his campaign off the airwaves or out of the paper is not positive for him at this point in the campaign. He may reap some incidental benefit from this scandal, but it's hard to see any concrete, direct benefit for him.
Comments
I think it helps Massa or, more accurately, hurts Kuhl. Hastert's a goner and that hurts all Republicans. It may depress Massa's ID that is true.
Don't forget that after Hastert goes, they'll replace him with other crooks and they'll be able to spend some time revisiting the general crookedness of the last five years of Congress.
If Hastert does resign, which seems increasingly likely, they could defer the election of a successor until after the election.
Also, remember that the people Massa needs to influence are the centrist undecided and less-committed Democrats. Both of these groups might not view Foleygate through partisan eyes. Instead, they might see it as just another case of corrupt politicians, and be less inclined to vote.
That said, Massa's non-politician status is an important asset, and I'm sure he'll keep emphasizing it.
Money trail again - in terms of Kuhl's claims of independence and whether or not he can take a position demanding a change in Republican leadership, which Massa could use to implicate Kuhl if he doesn't call for a "house cleaning". Kuhl has taken the following sums in '05-'06: from Boehner, 9,500.00; from Hastert, 10,000.00; from Clay Shaw - someone who has received money from Foley, 1,000.00; from Reynolds, 5,000.00 - all from these men's PACs. And if the Republican Congressional Campaign folks keep the money Foley has raised for them over the years, then Kuhl will probably get some from there also. Seems to me the general ethics issue should work well for Massa given the very weak ethics legislation passed by this House.
Kathy, I agree that the ethics issue does cut Massa's way, but the attention that the Reynolds race is going to garner will impede his campaign's effort getting that message (or any other) out to the public.