The crosstabs [pdf] for the Majority Watch poll show how important the Monroe/Ontario suburbs (the "Volvo-Donut") are to the Massa effort. Majority Watch divides the district into the North (Monroe and Ontario) and the South (the rest). In the North, Massa leads Kuhl by 26 points. In the South, Massa's ahead by one percent.
According to this poll, everything's worse for for Kuhl in the North. The "voter motivation index", which measures how likely it is that voters are going to vote, is the highest in there (7.76/9.0). Voters in the North are the most certain in their choice (83%), and the least pleased (67%) with the job that Bush is doing.
Overall, the bad news keeps on coming for Kuhl. 82% of voters in the entire district are "certain" in their choice. Only 9% of the voters are undecided. The voter motivation index for Massa voters is higher than that of Kuhl voters. Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans.
With undecided, certainty and motivation numbers like these, it's hard to see light at the end of the tunnel for the Kuhl campaign. If this survey is right, voters in the 29th have made up their minds, they've chosen Massa, and they're going to vote that choice.
Comments
My early speculation was that if Randy brought out Amo for endorsement purposes, it was a sign his campaign was in trouble. I still believe that and if the polling numbers are accurate, even more reason to be concerned. FYI, Amo and his brother Jamie, the former CEO of Corning, endorsed the incumbent Republican Mayor of Corning in last years election.He lost.
Sorry, guys, but this poll is fantasy. Period. Elmira, Corning and Hornell---yes, those voters are sophisticated and ticket-switching. And Samara Barend cleaned his clock in the northern part of the district two years ago. But, sympathetic as I am, I cannot believe--for a minute--that these numbers are right.
Countryboy: I don't know if Amo's endorsement is a sign of desperation. I thought it was a low-key, positive and probably effective ad. Also, in the context of Batiste's anti-Kuhl ad, it is a way for Kuhl to strike back without being negative. Nothing wrong with that. Like any other expected endorsement, its value is probably slight. (That's part of the reason why Batiste's non-endorsement is worth some attention: it is unexpected.)
Pepper: If barely winning (48%) is "cleaning a clock" then Barend did that. Monroe County -- Assini's home county -- voted for him at almost 10%, which took a lot of votes away from Kuhl. Barend was a mediocre candidate and ran a merely OK campaign. I don't think her performance in '04 is that relevant to the '06 race.
These numbers do seem way to good to be true. admitedly Im in Elmira where they say the race is still dead even. I supposed its possible to have jumped that much, there was the Debates which got the name out there, and name recognition was/is his biggest hurdle. that and randy blasted himself in the foot with a shotgun twice, once with the Katrina incident, and then when he said that many people without health insurance choose not to have it, that probably hurt.
I take this as a moral booster and nothing more, there three weeks left and anything can happen. I still think this is going to be a fight to the end.
Go Eric!