Non-partisan political analyst Stuart Rothenberg pours cold water on positive Democratic polling reports from second-tier races, especially in nearby NY-25. Since the Massa campaign has just released a poll similar to those he discusses, his article is worth a read. Rothenberg thinks that these polls merely reflect a generic desire for change, and that there's no solid evidence that the challengers are gaining any momentum.
Some of what he says about NY-25 is applicable to the poll released this weekend by the Massa campaign. Massa's name recognition is relatively low, so many voters might just be for him as a "generic" Democrat. But, unlike the 25th, Kuhl's negatives are pretty high: 38% negative on him as a person, 47% negative on his job performance. That means that generic voter dissatisfaction might be transmitted as a specific vote against Kuhl.
Rothenberg's advice to incumbents in these races is to "pound away" at challengers, making them the issue.
Comments
It's funny -- minus the stuff about people's impression of the opponent (which I can't analyze) -- I think he's wrong about NY-25, but that this analysis might apply to NY-29.
Here's my main point -- Maffei's numbers are way up over the past few months. He was 20 points behind a few months ago when he had no name recognition. As his name reconition has gone up, he's gained a lot of ground. Given that his name reconigition will to up even more, I don't see why his numbers shouldn't go up more as well.
I'm less thrilled by Massa's numbers, because they haven't gone up so much as his name ID has gone up. On the other hand, I think Massa is a more dynamic candidate and that Kuhl always has the potential to give it away.
I don't know enought about the NY-25 race to comment, and the polling report released by the Massa campaign is so cherry-picked that I have a hard time comparing the numbers to those Rothenberg reports for Maffei.
My overall take is that Massa's name recognition has probably grown among partisans, who were already predisposed to vote for the Democrat. Non-partisans still don't know who he is, and that's at least one reason why the overall numbers haven't moved. Recognition is a huge issue in Monroe/Ontario, almost 50% of the '04 vote, where many voters probably don't even realize that Kuhl's their rep.
Whether to know Massa is to love him is another question, as is whether Kuhl's higher-than-Walsh negatives will translate into any real movement in the voting booth.
What I wonder about is this: Massa's polling was done in late September, after the first media blitz on television. In April, Massa has 15% name recognition and has spent at least four months building his visibility. Then, right after the media spend, he has increased his name recognition by only 25%? And actually lost ground (from 40% in April to 39% in Sept) in the comparison between him and Kuhl? And, the nebulousness of the comments in the press release from the pollsters sounded more like cheerleading than hard facts.
What I am most worried about is that Massa has not truly broken though in the District with 45% registered Republicans, 29% registered Democrats and a strong Independent and Conservative (read: Republicians of another color) constituents; after 22 months of campaigning. Baring a major slipup by Kuhl or a disasterous personal issue like the Foley embarrassment, how will Massa break through?
Lastly, coupled with a 3:1 money in the bank ratio, Massa will be outspent on the air and in the last 72 hours by the Kuhl campaign. And we have yet to see what the RNC or the RCCC will do, given that the DCCC is not planning on major efforts. I worry because the campaign has yet to really start here in the District, and with the storm rising, that is why I fear the momentum will not happen here.
All good points, Mary.
Kuhl is still the favorite in this race. He is better backed by his party, and has more money.
Massa supporters can hope that the RNC and RCCC will not make this race a priority because of having to spend money on other, unexpected races (e.g., Reynolds). And they can also hope that their candidate is less vulnerable to attack ads because, as a non-politician, he has few if any skeletons in his closet. But those are hopes, versus the facts of registration in this district.
My overall take is that Massa's name recognition has probably grown among partisans, who were already predisposed to vote for the Democrat.
That's my take too since they've focused on Monroe County where he is strongest. Maffei, I suspect, has gone up largely because he's running a lot of ads on Syracuse t.v. I suspect his name ID in Irondequoit in Pennfield are not high (to be honest with you, Walsh's aren't high over there either, a lot of peole still think Slaughter is their rep), but they're just as Democratic as Syracuse. So I think that Maffei has room to grow with name ID. That's the point I think Stu is missing.
With Massa, I'm less sure what impact further recognition will have.
The two races are very different. I'd say the incumbents are still favored in both, but not by much.