I agree with the guys at rochesterturning that the Laura Bush visit is all about shoring up base women voters. I don't agree with Robert Novak's reason why:
Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in District 29 has seen his support among women evaporate. Kuhl's dirty laundry -- including the old alleged threat against his wife with a shotgun -- had been aired before, but now perhaps it is finding a more receptive audience in this tough Republican election year.
Perhaps the personal issues of the last campaign might have left some residual damage, but there are two issues that have affected every woman I know. The most recent is the Foley scandal. Moms are mad at the Republican leadership, who appear to have tolerated a child predator to ensure a safe seat. More importantly, in the last couple of weeks, death and injury of soldiers in Iraq have been front page news across the district. The other day, I saw one normally stoic mother shed a tear while reading the story of the latest death. Even among those who think the war was justified, there's a lot of anger at the perceived incompetence and carelessness of the Republican leadership. That carelessness has cost a lot of mothers their son or daughter. Fairly or not, the R after Kuhl's name will cost him votes of women -- especially mothers -- in the district.
Novak's ideological blinders won't allow him to see those factors, so he hones in on what he understands: personal attacks.