Republicans who voted against the Iraq resolution were immediately targeted for primary challenges by commentators on the right. Randy Kuhl dodged that bullet by voting for the Iraq resolution, but the threat of a primary challenge or Conservative Party candidate in the general election is still real in the 29th.
Last month, Bob Lonsberry threatened Kuhl with a primary challenge over the immigration issue. Towards the end of the 2006 campaign, Kuhl moderated his immigration position after receiving complaints from area farmers. Lonsberry kept mum about this during the campaign, but he wasted no time in passing judgment after Kuhl was re-elected:
If [Kuhl] believes those things, then while he's got his head up there he might as well look around and see if he can find any polyps.
[...]
You've got it backwards, Randy.
And you need to turn it around.
Or we'll start campaigning for your primary opponent before the spring corn goes in.
Lonsberry's threat is real. In the 2004 general election, Conservative Mark Assini received 6% of the vote. If Assini had run in 2006, it's likely that Massa would have beaten Kuhl. A primary challenge that morphs into a general election run by a Conservative Party candidate in 2008 would probably spell the end of Randy Kuhl's legislative career.
Mark Assini retired from the Monroe County Legislature in 2005 and writes a weekly column. He's tanned, rested and ready if the base loses patience with Randy Kuhl.
Comments
Yeah, you're probably right about this. Some nut who taught my sister social studies almost beat the great Sherwood Boehlert in 2000 (the nut's name was David Vickers -- you can see the results here.
Lonsberry's got it all wrong when it comes to illegal immigrants. The farm community does rely on immigrants for labor and without them, would be hard pressed to continue operations. Kuhl was right to listen to the farmers in the 29th and moderate his position. Kuhl's been a long time supporter of NY agriculture. You won't see him turn his back on the industry.
May I suggest another scenerio? A group of 'Northern' Republicans, who are upset with Kuhl and his baggage, plus the fact he nearly lost his seat, and the Nathional Committee had to save him with a million dollars worth of ads in the last week of the campaign, gets someone to run in a primary for the nomination.
Countryboy - I agree that Kuhl will end up supporting farmers in the end. But he'll get some static from a lot of conservatives for doing so.
Rich - I think your scenario is plausible since a Northern candidate would help keep Monroe Republicans voting with their party. Assini is a "Northern" (i.e., Monroe County) Republican - why not him?
So THAT is what Mark Assini has been up to. Thanks for the update. You know, he ran a class act primary campaign. In Steuben--this was the precise wording in media reports--people turned out in the primary as heavily as if it was the general. That big big hometown (read: SOUTH vote) carried the day. Without campaigning, period, Assini drew heavily on the Conservative line.