The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Today, commenters on this blog and on Rochesterturning have been eviscerating the Nachbar candidacy. I agree. Nachbar's candidacy, if pursued, will be a disaster for the Democrats in the 29th. I say this knowing only a little bit about Nachbar, but I would say it even if he were the second coming of Christ fused with the ghost of JFK presented in the corporeal shell of Barack Obama.

I agree with those who say that a candidate from the North can't win for structural reasons. More importantly, a wealthy candidate from Pittsford is even more surely doomed to fail in the primary as well as the general election. The reasons for this encompass both pride and pragmatism.

Unlike Monroe County, where the local newspapers barely cover any Members of Congress, the Southern newspapers are all over their representative. In addition, Kuhl is often the featured speaker at important events, like commencement exercises. Replacing a local resident who's in touch with the needs of the Southern Tier with an executive from Monroe County (someone whose knowledge of that part of the district might be limited to a couple of winery tours) would be a huge blow to the pride of people in the South. It would be tantamount to losing representation.

More pragmatically, someone who lives in the Southern Tier is well-acquainted with the needs of that part of the district, which are quite different from those of the North. Let's begin with agriculture. Though this certainly isn't Massa or Kuhl's strong point, both have spent years (or decades, in Kuhl's case) listening to farmers. Nachbar and his wife have built a horse barn on their property, but I doubt that he's going to resonate with farmers. Nor is his experience in upper-middle-class Pittsford prepared him to understand the issues of the relatively poor Southern 29th. The towns in that part of the state are hurting. Unless they're represented by someone who lives in their area, the residents of the Southern 29th will fear that their representative will focus too much time and attention on the needs of the relatively wealthy Northern suburbs.

For Southerners, the presence of an hard-working Congressman who understands their needs is absolutely critical to the well-being of their part of the state. Instead of Republicans crossing over to support Massa, as we saw in 2006, we'll see Democrats pulling the Kuhl lever in the highly unlikely event that Nachbar makes it to the general election.

Now let's look at the pernicious influence of Louise Slaughter in all of this.

Louise Slaughter clearly doesn't like Eric Massa. I have yet to see anything more than the most perfunctory endorsement of Massa from her. Louise didn't campaign last election because of a case of the shingles, but her office didn't work for Massa either. Louise pushed Nachbar in 2006, and he wisely withdrew in the face of Massa's quality candidacy. In 2008, apparently Nachbar and Slaughter have decided that announcing early is a wise strategy, and it is: their Machiavellian scheme will prevent Massa from doing any major fundraising and choke off his campaign for a solid year.

By declaring herself for Nachbar, Slaughter will freeze a lot of the national money that would have otherwise have come Massa's way. As the chair of the powerful House Rules committee, Louise is a person that potential donors won't want to cross. So, instead of sending Massa some coin, those donors will either stay out or support Nachbar. It really doesn't matter, since Nachbar has enough money to self-finance the primary. Massa hasn't cashed in millions of B&L stock options, so the effect of the Nachbar announcement on his campaign will be debilitating.

Massa's dead right when he says that $3 million is what it's going to take to win the 29th. The Nachbar candidacy, with Slaughter's support, will effectively deny him that kind of money. Whether or not Massa wins the primary (and he will win it), Nachbar's candidacy will hobble Massa's effort in the general election. Massa's fundraising goal can only be achieved with a two-year effort, and without money, Massa is a sure loser.

This seems completely bloody obvious to me, yet it seems to escape a wily politician like Slaughter. Why? The simple answer is that Louise Slaughter has no reason to understand the North/South dynamic in the 29th. She's completely out of touch with party leaders and party rank-and-file in the Southern Tier. Her focus is on Rochester and its ring suburbs. It's natural that she'd look to consolidate her power in Monroe County by hand-picking a protégé.

No politician is immune to the arrogance of power, and this move reeks of it. For those of you who watched the 2006 election closely, consider this equation: David Nachbar is to Louise Slaughter as Tammy Duckworth was to Rahm Emanuel.

Before leaving the topic of Louise, I want to deal with a comment Bud made earlier today. He noted that Louise's choice of Nachbar indicates that the "Washington establishment considers Massa a loser". I'd like to hear the reasons behind that, if Bud is interested in sharing them. I certainly agree that Slaughter risks leaving that impression. But I think the real truth here is that the establishment senses that Massa is a man who can't be controlled. When the Democrats were desperate in '06, they were willing to hold their noses and tolerate rebels like Massa (or James Webb). Now that they have the reins back, those type of mavericks aren't to the taste of the entrenched Democratic powerbrokers. They want someone who won't buck when the saddle is cinched up. Massa is not that man.

Finally, let's examine the impact of this announcement on Randy Kuhl, the man who's celebrating his second birthday, Christmas, New Year's and July 4th today. After performing cartwheels in his House office, Randy will bide his time until after the 2008 primary, which is exactly the strategy he's wanted to follow since the day after the 2006 election. Randy will love watching Massa and Nachbar argue over bullshit like which one wants troops out of Iraq faster. Every minute of primary coverage is a minute where Massa is unable to stick it to Kuhl. Kuhl will exit the primary season tanned, rested and ready to spend his enormous campaign chest on obliterating Massa over the airwaves of the 29th.

David Nachbar's candidacy represents the worst in insular party politics. I hope he comes to his senses and pulls out, but I fear that Louise's hand-picked candidate will be in it for the long haul.