As reader Zabriskie noted yesterday, the key to Randy Kuhl's last-minute change of heart on H R 2638 is apparently President Bush's veto threat. According to the OMB's statement of policy [pdf], the White House objection is twofold: the bill contains $2.1 billion more in spending than requested in the original budget, and it requires that all wages paid for federal projects must be paid at the same rate as prevailing wages in the area. (In other words, Homeland Security projects must follow the Davis-Bacon Act.)
The Massa campaign has issued a press release claiming that Kuhl's reversal was due to Bush's Friday afternoon announcement that he would veto H R 2638. That might be true, but I think the reason is not only Bush's announcement, but some serious behind-the-scenes arm twisting. The President's plan to veto the bill was not new information on Friday: the OMB document linked above, which is an official veto threat, was released last Tuesday. Kuhl had plenty of time to decide to tow the administration line, if that was his original intent. The muffed press release indicates that it wasn't. Someone or something changed his mind at the last minute.
As Exile of Rochesterturning points out, Kuhl was the only Western New York Republican to vote against the bill: Jim Walsh (NY-25) and Tom Reynolds (NY-26) both voted "Yea". It's telling that others facing tight races weren't willing to tow the administration line. Voting against Homeland Security in New York State is tough. I'm sure Kuhl is hoping that he'll have a chance to cast a vote for a final compromise bill after the Senate goes to work on H R 2638. In the meantime, the Massa campaign has already labeled this a "flip-flop", and they'll certainly try to make an issue of it.