Last Fall, I posted repeatedly about a strategy named after pollsters' nicknames for left-leaning ring suburbs: the "Volvo-Donut". "Volvo" refers to the preferred vehicle of left-leaning suburbanites, and "Donut" refers to the suburbs that encircle major metropolitan areas like Rochester. The basic idea was that the key to a win in the 29th is heavy turnout of the Monroe and Ontario suburbs.
Even though Eric Massa did not win in the 29th, the data provided by Reader John shows that Massa's campaign inspired suburban residents to flock to the polls and to vote for Massa in large numbers. Rochester's suburban county, Monroe, had the highest turnout percentage of any county in the 29th, as well as the highest percentage of "pulls" (votes for Massa that probably came from blanks).
The performance of Monroe County is still key to the 2008 election. Massa must continue to inspire voters in Monroe in order to win. But there's a limit to what can be expected from the Southeast Rochester suburbs. Monroe had the highest turnount of any county in the 29th, with most towns in the 60% range. Brighton, by far the most Democratic town in the district, had an impressive 67% turnout. In US elections, two-thirds of the voters usually don't turn out for Presidential races, much less off-year elections. The simple fact is that Monroe doesn't have that many more voters to turn out.
Anyone studying the numbers realizes that the additional votes needed for a Democratic win in 2008 will not come solely, or principally, from Monroe. It's the Southern Tier where Democrats will have to turn out greater numbers if they want to win in 2008, since the average turnout in the South is lower than the sky-high Monroe numbers.
That simple fact is the reason that Southern Tier Democrats are so little receptive to the Nachbar campaign. They are well aware that the burden of getting more voters to the polls is on their shoulders. They don't see how a resident of Pittsford -- which already has one of the highest turnout numbers (67%) in the 29th -- will draw the voters in Salamanca and Tuscarora to the polls in greater numbers. Only a candidate from the South will be able to motivate those voters.