Randy Kuhl was
asked about retirement rumors at a taping of Coleman and Company, WETM's Sunday political talk show. He repeated his stock answer that he will be deciding whether to run in the next couple of months.
I've read a lot of rumors in the past couple days, but I haven't seen any sourced from Kuhl's staff. Randy's recent, uninspiring fundraising numbers will probably fuel still more speculation, but I don't think he's going to retire.
Kuhl's seniority, or lack of it, is the first reason that I think he's staying put. Twenty-eight of his Republican colleagues just retired, almost all of whom are more senior than him. Kuhl's recent appointment as deputy whip indicates that he's interested in leadership, so those retirements give Kuhl a better opportunity to move up. Randy's a healthy 64. He can reasonably expect at least a decade or more behind the plow. His prospects for attaining a significant leadership or committee post in that timeframe improve whenever another Republican throws in the towel.
The psychology of seniority for a back-bencher like Kuhl is quite different from a 20-year vet like James Walsh (NY-25). Walsh and the other retirees know that they're looking at a couple of grim sessions for Republicans. Democrats will almost certainly strengthen their hold on the House in 2008, It's likely that they'll increase their majority in the Senate, and they might also occupy the White House. If you've already tasted the sweet nectar of a senior committee or leadership spot, the prospect of waiting a couple more sessions until you do it again may not be worth the agita of defending your seat. If you're like a back-bencher like Kuhl, you knew coming in that you were going to have to put in your time, and it really doesn't matter if your party is in the majority or minority while you're reeling in the years.
Finally, there's redistricting. In 2012, Western New York is going to lose a seat in Congress, and it's likely that the new district lines will carve out only one "safe Republican" seat. There's no doubt that, if such a seat exists, it will include the Southern Tier. If Kuhl can hold off Massa's challenge and survive until then, he might end up with a safer seat than he has today.
Kuhl's retirement is great fodder for speculation, but a reality check shows that he's got plenty of reasons to go down fighting.
Comments
The rumors are interesting for two reasons:
(1) He is raising money like a man on the verge of retirement.
(2) He wants to act like he's not sure he's in so he can employ Meghan Tissinger as an attack dog without paying her out of his campaign money.
We'll write more about this later.
(1) I see your point, but it's tough out there for Republicans in general. When corps see that you're going to be out of power for a while, they're not as interested in giving you big bucks, because they think you won't have the clout.
In other words, that might be as good as Kuhl can do, whether or not he is planning to retire.
(2) Absolutely. That's what he did last cycle, too, with Bob Van Wicklin, It's a smart incumbent strategy.
So is your point that whoever's floating the retirement rumor is trying to smoke him out? If so, I agree.
I think NY will lose 2 seats in 2012, and all of that will be upstate. Plus there is population growth downstate, and loss upstate, so downstate might gain a seat and upstate would lose 3 seats. If that is the case, Randy Kuhl's seat is certainly history.
So is your point that whoever's floating the retirement rumor is trying to smoke him out?
Actually, it's more that he doesn't want to put it to bed because he doesn't want to pay Tissinger and that his fundraising numbers, whether they're his fault or not, lend credence to it. You're right that Dems would like to smoke him out on it but I'm not sure they have to "float" this rumor -- his equivocation and lack of fundraising make it pretty buoyant on its own.
James: If you're right about the degree of loss, there probably won't be a R majority district in WNY.
Exile: You're tight, his actions are feeding the rumor.
Charlie Cook in Cook Political Report has now mentioned Kuhl as a potential retirement. With Cook saying this, who is as reliable as it gets, this will end Kuhl's fundraising capacity until he says hes running for reelection. Maybe a few contributors will give him $$ if there is something for them, but corporate $$ and Congressional member PAC $$ will completely dry up, until he makes his intentions known.
Until then Massa will be able to soak up the $$.
Here's the link.
http://cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2008%20haag_summary_jan31.pdf
One has to wonder, if Kuhl does not run, will the DCCC clear the field for Massa or will someone else try to take a stab at it again.
That link just goes to Cook's public one-sheet report.
I agree that Kuhl is risking his corporate fundraising by delaying his announcement in the current environment, whether the sainted Charlie Cook says it or not.