Wed, 02/06/2008 - 14:40 — Rottenchester
I have no great wisdom to impart on Super-Duper-Apocalypto-Big Bang Tuesday, because when all was said and done, Democrats are pretty much where they were on ordinary Monday.
I do hope the parties continue to have a bunch of primaries on one day. It makes things more interesting and exciting.
Comments
Some good news for Kuhl
As far as the 29th congressional district, in Steuben County Republicans represented 65% of the vote, Democrats 35%. McCain’s vote totals were higher than Clinton’s, Romney and Huckabee beat Obama and Ron Paul kicked the crap out of John Edwards to avoid last place
Not bad for a supposedly demoralized party against their euphoric opponents.
Different story in Monroe. Hillary alone beat all Republicans combined:
http://rochesterturning.com/2008/02/06/obama-performance-in-ny-by-county/
Ron Paul needs to switch parties. With proportional representation in pretty much every state primary, he'd probably have more than 42 delegates.
Hillary may have done well in Monroe, but aren't the towns in the 29th more Republican than Monroe County in general?
Monroe is about half the population in the 29th, and it's by far the most Democratic, especially since that total includes the city of Rochester (which isn't part of the 29th).
Since Monroe is only part of the 29th, to figure out the whole D/R split in the 29th, you'd have to go down to the town (and, really, precinct) level.
I think turn-out -- in particular the overwhelming Democratic turn-out on Tuesday nationwide -- to be an important story. But I think it's probably a mistake to think you can say much about a Congressional general election based on turn-out in presidential primary.
Steuben will go overwhelmingly for Kuhl, Monroe will go overwhelmingly for Massa. No shock there. This will be a close race. Anyone who thinks they can say much more than that is wrong.
Agreed on the fact that the race will be tight