Both the Kuhl and Massa campaigns continue to open local offices.
Last week, Kuhl opened an office at 15 State Street, in Pittsford, which is next door to Massa's 2006 office. I don't remember a Kuhl office in the Monroe County area last cycle, certainly not in Pittsford.
Yesterday, Massa opened an office in Horseheads, Chemung County. Chemung was the closest Southern Tier county in the 2006 race, with Kuhl winning by 4 points.
Comments
I don't mean to be a wet blanket but does anyone have empirical evidence to think this rematch will be as close as the last? It seems that Randy has now established himself, with regular and generally favorable press and good constituent relations, and that this time around things will be much more heavily in his favor. I haven't seen polls or anything, just a feeling from hanging around restaurants and coffeeshops.
Generally speaking an incumbent congressman is most vulnerable after his or her freshman term, so based on that fact Randy starts this campaign in a better position than in 2006. Plus, 2006 was an absolute democratic landslide (especially in NY) and Massa still couldn't beat Kuhl. Add to that the polling that Kuhl has released showing him 20 points ahead I think the word you are hearing on the street is pretty accurate.
That 20 point poll was a joke. There's no way this race is that far apart.
I don't know anyone following this race who thinks it won't be close. This is a presidential year, which will drive more turnout. Plus, Massa is more a of known quantity in the Southern Tier this cycle, and he's much better funded.
It's going to be the closest race in WNY, and probably one of the closest in the country.
Where've you seen a 20pt gap? Largest I've seen is 12 points thus far.
There hasn't been a poll in this race that isn't candidate sponsored. In other words, there hasn't been a real poll.
I hadn't heard the twenty points ahead portion but it's not unbelievable. Someone on here, months ago, predicted Randy would win by a minimum ten points this time around--which I'm convinced will happen--and I remember everyone jumping on that comment.
I am not sure if Kuhl will win or not, but my take is the most he will get is 55% of the vote. Massa, if he wins, won't have that much.
I expect a close race too. I'd be surprised if either candidate went over 53%. Kuhl has incumbency but Massa will probably have more money down the stretch (thanks to the DCCC). That's a recipe for a close race, one way or the other.
Kuhl by ten, like it or not.
Olean Gal/ Penn Yan Pepper, you were Kuhl by 5 last cycle, yet Massa is better financed, it's a higher turnout year, etc. So this is just more evidence that your predictions are irrational. But feel free to keep making them.
Irrational? Well, okay....