I received my first glossy mailer [pdf] of the campaign yesterday, and it wasn't from Eric Massa or Randy Kuhl. Responsible New York, the political action committee founded by billionaire Tom Golisano, sent a mailer on behalf of David Nachbar, the Democratic candidate for New York Senate in the 55th Senate District.
The 55th contains the same set of Monroe County (Rochester) suburbs as the 29th district, plus some others to the west and north. The Rochester suburbs are extremely important to the Massa campaign. In the last election, about 1/3 of the votes cast came from Monroe County, and Massa won Monroe by 14 points.
Nachbar's opponent, Jim Alesi, has been in office for 12 years, about the same time that I've lived in his district. I don't recall a single serious challenge to Alesi during that time. Nachbar has the potential to mount that challenge. He's got money, is well-spoken, and has an solid business background. If he energizes Democrats in the Northern 29th, Massa's victory margin here could make it tough for Kuhl to make up the difference in the traditionally Republican Southern Tier.
Comments
I don't seem to understand Monroe County. I understand the suburbs went for Massa last time, but aren't the suburbs the area that keeps the Monroe County Legislature and the County Executive in Republican hands?
If all this is true, why do the voters cross over for Massa?
BTW - these math questions are getting tougher :)
I'm not sure that I understand the Massa cross-over completely, but part of the reason that there are a lot of Republican office holders is incumbency. Many of the suburban town, county and state Republican office-holders are long-time incumbents, so probably a good number of Democrats pull for Republicans for those offices because of the person, rather than the party.
Alesi is a good test case. If he's unseated, that will be some evidence that a quality Democrat can beat a decent Republican incumbent, all other things being equal.
Monroe County Republicans are often Rockefeller Republicans, they're not right-wing at all. They'll vote Republican at the town, county, and state level but not at the federal level because town, county, and state Republicans may or may not be that far to the right, but federal Republicans certainly are.
Elmer, some day you'll stop voting for Republicans at the national level, too. I just don't think you're nuts enough to pull the lever for McCain/Palin/Kuhl come November.
Also, small town government isn't based in ideology. The suburban Monroe County towns are generally well run, no matter whether a Republican or Democrat is at the helm. East Rochester seems to be a notable exception, and the government there turned over.
Keep dreaming,...keep dreaming,...this race is over. McCain will run VERY strong and thus will RK.
Keep dreaming, keep dreaming....McCain is gonna run BIG-TIME in this area and RK easily will follow. This race is over, I think,