Sean Carroll at 13-WHAM has done some work tracking down the current state of the recount, and he was kind enough to share it with me.
Sean reports that all absentee votes are in lockdown until a court hearing next Wednesday in Bath. That hearing will determine a standard by which all uncounted votes will be counted, with campaign oversight.
Counties differ in their absentee vote counting -- some include the numbers in the totals, others don't. It's possible that some military ballots won't be received until November 18th, two weeks after the election.
Here's Sean's count, with the proviso that Allegany's part of the count is approximate:
TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS SENT OUT: Approx. 22,000 (my math has 22,420, campaigns have a few less)
TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS RECEIVED: Approx. 17,000 (17,013 is what I have – campaigns are similar)
TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS COUNTED: Approx 5,500 (campaigns have b/n 5,500 – 5,700, I do too)
TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS IN LOCKDOWN: Approx. 11,500 + others yet to arrive
MASSA’S LEAD: 4,414 votes (288 more than last night, Monroe Co. updated their numbers for both camps)
This means Randy Kuhl needs roughly 8,000 of the 11,500 ballots outstanding.
Comments
I don't get it, unless the universe of absentees exist in conservative Utah, Kuhl will not win it. Even Gordon Smith in Oregon conceded. It's just that Kuhl can't believe that he lost to Massa, and is playing tit for tat.
What is evident in this race, is that the Republican base in upstate NY is shrinking year by year, as the young Republicans leave the state and old republicans die. When the electorate is comprised of unionized state DOT workers and teachers and struggling mom and pop stores the GOP isn't going to cut it.
Its time for Randy to just take an extended vacation in Florida where he will live state tax free.
It took Massa a few days to concede in '06. Whether this is really tit-for-tat or not, it doesn't matter. There's no path for a Kuhl victory.