Election Data Services, a non-partisan consulting firm, has released a new study projecting the loss of a single House seat by New York in 2012. As this analysis shows, last year's EDS report predicted a sure loss of two seats by New York.
The anticipated number of seats lost has a huge impact on the future of the 29th district, and Eric Massa. Since Western New York has lost population while downstate has gained, it's almost certain that redistricting will lead to fewer, and geographically larger, districts in this area. In the 2002 redistricting, three "Republican seats" were created: NY-29, 25 and 26. Today, two of those seats are held by Democrats. With Democrats in charge of the Legislature, it's hard to imagine a plan that leaves any Western New York seats to Republicans.
Comments
A few things to think about.
There has been population growth in the NYC, and population loss in the upstate and Western NY area. So this means that not only will upstate lose 1 seat, it may be as many as 2 or 3 or even more, because the population has shifted.
Another very important thing to consider.
Currently, in order to keep the State Senate Republican, the Republicans have forced NYS to count towards its upstate population the prisoners in the upstate jails, which do not vote, but count towards inflating Republican districts making them bigger and qualifying upstate for more representation.
Should the Democrats change this, if they come out victorious in the State Senate mess that is going on now, they will end counting prisoners as part of local population, shrinking upstate's population even more. This will probably make the difference in giving away another congressional seat to upstate.
At the end of the day I think NY will probably lose 1 seat, but upstate (north of orange and duchess counties,) will lose 3. Western NY will for sure lose 1, and maybe even 2. There's just no population to support it. And remember, there is still 3 years to go, for Upstate and Western NY to lose more people by death and people moving to warmer pastures. The economic climate isn't going to get better here any time soon.
I'm afraid this is likely true. We could end up with a Massa-Slaughter primary for a single reconstructed district, or Hinchney-Massa primary. Ironic, isn't it? But everyone is in such a hurry to fast-forward to turn of the decade...let's see how Mr. Massa does for us during these exciting months ahead.
James -- Thanks for the information. I agree that WNY is almost certain to lose 1 seat, and a grim economy may lead to more.
Pepper - Louise Slaughter will be 83 years old in 2012. I'm guessing she will retire at some point, certainly before a primary challenge. As for Hinchey, if the State Senate is in the hands of Democrats, I assume they'll gerrymander districts to avoid a primary. They could also add Ithaca to the 29th to put a few more Dems into the district.
Chris Lee (NY-26) Congressional District will get eliminated.
Put Monroe and Livingston County in NY-29.(Massa)
Put Niagara and Erie County in NY-27(Higgins)
Put Wyoming,Genessee and Orleans in NY-28(Slaughter).- The new 28th will look like a T.
Too make NY-29(Massa's) District more safer- We can put NY-25(Maffei's) Monroe County base in NY-29.
NY-29 will lose Ontario County to NY-25.
John McHugh(NY-23) Congressional District will also get eliminated.
Put Essex,Clinton,and Franklin in NY-20(Gillibrand)
Put Fulton,Hamilton and Eastern portion of St Lawrence in NY-21(Tonko)
Put Madison,Onieda,Lewis and SW portion of St Lawrence in NY-24(Arcuri)
Put Oswego,Jefferson and NW portion of St Lawrence in NY-25(Maffei)
Regarding Peter King(NY-3)- We can carve up that District and create a New District in North Eastern Queens Area.
SW Suffolk County goes to NY-2.(Isreal)- loses Eastern Nassau County base to NY-5(Ackerman)-held it in the 1990's
Northern Nassau County goes to NY-5(Ackerman).- loses Northeasern Queens Base.
Southern Nassau County goes to NY-4(McCarthy)- loses the Western portion of Nassau County base to NY-6(Meeks) lose the Northern Central Queens base. (Peter King will run against McCarthy in the new District)
I'd like to see part of Ontario in the same district as Monroe since the Victor area is essentially a Rochester suburb.