Reader Stanley sends last week's Capitol Newspaper article about the prospects for a 2010 race.
Stanley was nice enough to summarize three points from the piece. I don't think the arguments for any of them are great, and I give my reasons below.
1. Kuhl's problems won the race for Massa.
True, in part, but Massa also ran a top-notch campaign, with grassroots organizing, excellent fundraising, and good GOTV. Massa is not the Democratic equivalent of Joseph Cao -- someone who was elected only because of the missteps of his opponent. As an incumbent, Massa's a formidable opponent, no matter who runs against him.
2. Maggie Brooks is the GOP frontrunner.
Maggie's name gets mentioned a lot, but it's not even clear that she lives in the district. Also, I don't see a Monroe County Republican swaying Southern Tier blanks who might be inclined to vote for a Republican. It's hard to overstate the importance of this seat to the Southern Tier, and Maggie's power base is in Rochester, not Elmira or Corning.
3. The Tedisco/Kolb factor. If Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco loses in NY-20 tomorrow, Brian Kolb, a Canandaigua Republican in line for Tedisco's job, might be more likely to run for Congress.
If so, Mr. Kolb should declare his candidacy on Wednesday because he'll need the time to raise money for a Congressional run. His state office warchest is useless in a federal race. Also, if Tedisco does lose, isn't that a bit of a message to Mr Kolb and other Assembly Republicans who are thinking about making the jump to Congress?
The elephant in the room, redistricting, is never mentioned in the article, and it's a big issue. Before the 2012 race, the boundaries for WNY districts are likely to be redrawn to the benefit of Democrats. A Republican elected in 2010 in NY-29 may be a one-term wonder, and I'd expect a lot of smart politicians (like Maggie Brooks) to sit out next year's race and run in 2012 or 2014 after the redistricting dust has settled.
Update: Stanley writes to point out the Massa vs. Slaughter/Morelle comment in the piece. From what I've seen, Slaughter has been pretty cooperative with Massa, holding joint conferences and inviting him to serve in the new upstate caucus. I'm not saying that Louise and Eric are BFFs, but there doesn't seem to be obvious friction.
Comments
Brian Kolb, some may remember, had a short-lived campaign for the Congressional nomination when the seat first came up. He did things SO EXPERTLY---much like Eric. FOr instance, he made a series of District-wide announcements, including at the Bath VA. Then, I surmise, Randy's bud Governor Pataki implored Mr. Kolb "to stay in the Assembly" (or maybe it was Senate?) rather than primary Randy. Mr. Kolb was a good party man and waited it out. He shouldn't have. My own vote? Tom Reed, young Mayor of Corning; or retiring (but young) Steuben County Legislative Chair Phil Roche.
Kolb sounds like one of the better potential candidates - I wonder if he's willing to take the risk?
Kolb is a resourceful candidate. I just read on another blog that even if Tedesco (sp?) doesn't edge out Murphy for that open Congressional seat, some of the GOP may ask him to step aside as Assembly GOP leader, thus giving Brian Kolb a chance to succeed him.