This morning's Corning Leader carries the news that Mayor Tom Reed will not seek re-election. Reed's statement said that he is "exploring an opportunity for public service that many have been encouraging me to pursue." Reed will make his decision on a run by July 1.
Comments
While I still think the election is Massa's to lose, do not underestimate Reed. He is no fool, and would not run if he didn't think he had a chance.
There are two things I wonder about Reed:
1. Can he raise the kind of cash he needs to make this run without help from the national Republican party? The NRCC has too many races to watch and not enough cash to spend, so Reed will have to be the kind of fundraiser that Massa was.
2. Is he willing to spend every day from now until next Fall on the road campaigning (when he's not fundraising)? That's what it will take to raise his name recognition and to excite Republicans about his candidacy.
Answers:
1. If he has the right backers and team he can raise the money.
2. Call him and ask him after he announces! :)
On (1): Absent another "power" player getting into the race, I assume area Republicans will coalesce around him and he'll get whatever funds are available in the area. But for a hotly-contested race like this one, fundraising means attending out-of-district events and calling out-of-district donors to build up a warchest. One of Randy's big problems was that he didn't want to do what it takes to raise the $2-3 mil he needed.
Someone on this site, I believe, had predicted that the opponent could be a Mayor: Reed of Corning or David Wallace of Bath. "Young Reed" could treat this as an investment race (not to mention continuing to keep Steuben in the GOP column) and end up raising his visibility within any number of jurisdictions (for which he would be available in event of a retirement, resignation, etc.): Local Assembly, State Senate, perhaps even the State Supreme Court circuit--the one which I believe stretches into Monroe and throughout the Southern Tier.
Yeah, that was the same person who predicted Kuhl by 8 or something like that, so we'll see on the prediction front.
I agree that he might take on the race as a positioning move, even if he thinks it's an uphill battle.
Sigh---sometimes the crystal ball works and other times...ouch!