The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

The New York State Democratic Committee just held a conference call to air allegations about robo-calls that may be happening in the 29th. According to the Committee's lawyer, Frank Hoare, the calls follow one of two patterns:

1. The call begins by saying that someone from the Massa campaign is calling, then the phone disconnects. After the recipient hangs up, they're called back multiple times.
2. The voter answers the call, hears a long pause, and then gets an anti-Massa message.

Hoare used the 29th as a specific example of a district where such calls were occurring. He was long on accusations and short on proof, though he did point out that this type of robo-calling strategy has been used by Republicans in the past.

Even if the calls aren't intentional hang-ups, they're probably illegal. According to federal statute, all robo-calls must clearly identify who's initiating the call at the beginning. The calls that have been recorded don't do that until the end. They begin with "Hello, I'm calling with information about [candidate name]". So, if what's happening is malfunctioning robo-call, instead of an intentionally devious one, part of the problem is that the call doesn't follow federal law.

Rochesterturning has a post that details what to do if you've gotten a robo-call like this.

The forecast for the Northern and Southern 29th has improved:  no rain, partly cloudy, breezy, high 55.

One of the great things about this election is that nobody knows how it's going to turn out.  I wouldn't be surprised by a Massa blowout, a Massa win, or a Kuhl squeaker.  A Kuhl blowout would be a surprise, but even Bob Van Wicklin isn't predicting that.

I stick by the prediction that I made when I started this blog:  this race is a bellwether.  If it's a Massa blowout, or even a Massa win, I expect Democratic gains in both houses on the high end of analysts' predictions.  If Kuhl wins, Democrats will control the House by a razor-thin margin at best, and probably won't control the Senate.

There are no national exit polls in House races, so we'll have to wait until the polls close to determine the winner.  With New York's venerable yet reliable voting machines, returns come in quickly.  The suspense will be over shortly after voting ends at 9 p.m. 

The area newspapers are running turnout stories.   The D&C makes the obvious point that this election is all about turnout, and the Star-Gazette reports that absentee ballot returns are up in Chemung County (versus last year's local election).

Political analyst Larry Sabato has posted his final New York House predictions.  He calls all the close Western New York races for the incumbents.  On the 29th, he says, "We cannot entirely rule out an upset, and we do believe at least one of these upstate New York districts will flip, but we can't bring ourselves to wager against Kuhl."

Rochester TV station WHEC has a story about how the Massa campaign uses "cyberspace", with Massa's MySpace page as the example.  While it's true that Massa has a MySpace page, that just scratches the surface of the differences in the two campaigns' approaches to using the Internet.  The Massa website is full of detailed information about the candidate's positions, solicits online fundraising, and is constantly updated. 

Massa also posts a diary regularly on DailyKos, and that diary is replicated across a number of "netroots" sites like MyDD and the TPMCafe.  I don't think those efforts will gain Massa many votes in the 29th, but they have helped him in other ways.  One of the reasons that Massa has raised $800K from individuals is online contributions (often small, like $20) from readers of these sites.  In addition, Massa's participation in the discussion threads on those sites has probably helped him sharpen his positions on some issues.

The Kuhl campaign's site does not solicit donations and is infrequently updated.  Kuhl says:

What were doing is taking the old fashioned way [...] Taking the shoe leather on the street, right out to the people and saying hello.

It's not an either/or.  For example, Reader Rich points to Massa's election-day schedule, which begins at 4:15 a.m. in Pittsford and ends in Corning at 9 p.m.  That kind of schedule is typical for Massa, who's run a hard campaign on the ground as well as in "cyberspace".   

What's Randy Kuhl doing tomorrow?  I have no idea -- it isn't posted on his website.

Barring the discovery of one of the candidates in bed with a dead girl or a live boy, it's all down to turnout.  Kuhl has the 72 hour strategy, and Massa has his grassroots network of volunteers.  Both efforts pale in comparison to the weather.

The forecast for Tuesday is the same in the North and the South:  High 55, showers possible.  At this point, it looks like weather won't be an major issue.

Media coverage continues to increase in the South and stay pretty sparse in the North.  The Steuben Courier, "Steuben County's Largest Free Newspaper", has a pretty good race overview piece.   The Finger Lake Times covers the Massa and Spitzer visit to Canandaigua.  And it's down to the wire, according to the Olean Times-Herald.

Reader Rich reports that Bill Clinton will be coming to Rochester on Monday to rally the faithful.  Massa's Monroe County schedule hasn't been posted yet, but I assume he'll be there.  Today, Massa will appear at a rally in Hornell with General Wesley Clark.  The Kuhl campaign's celebrity is Amo Houghton, who will appear at a rally in Corning Monday night.

The Working Families Party has posted pdfs of three mailers sent (on 10/30, 11/2 and 11/3) in support of Eric Massa.

Massa has a new ad on Social Security - it's a "positive/negative" or "pivot" ad.  It starts with photos of FDR, and Massa saying that he intends to keep FDR's Social Security promise: "I won't cut taxes or raise benefits on Social Security, and Randy Kuhl knows it."  At the mention of Kuhl's name, there's a brief cut to black-and-white and a picture of Kuhl, but after making the point that Kuhl sponsored a bill to privatize Social Security, we're back in cheerful, colorful Massa-land.  Video after the break:

The Rural Patriot reports that the Olean TImes-Herald endorsed Randy Kuhl in their paper edition.  The endorsement isn't available from the paper's website.

Today's Elmira Star-Gazette has a race overview story that's pretty good, but starts with some errors.  First, the subhead reads "Polls Show Kuhl, Massa Winning as Race Winds Down".  Then it cites the Cook Report and Evans and Novak as evidence of the closeness of the race.  Those aren't polls, they're political writers' ratings based on a number of factors including polls.  In addition, they interpret the Cook Report rating [pdf], "leans Republican", as putting the race "solidly in Randy Kuhl's hands".  That's not right .  In Cook-speak, "leans" means a race where one party has the advantage but the race is competitive.  Cook's rating for "solid" races is "solid", and the 29th hasn't been in that category since Cook started publishing ratings for this cycle.

The National Journal has dropped the 29th from 35th to 44th in their ranking of competitive house races. 

29th district residents are besieged by an onslaught of direct mail and robo calls. 

The Rural Patriot reports on a mailer that tells us how Eric Massa loves terrorists, hates the troops, and kicks his dog nightly.

Rochesterturning takes a look at the robo-call firm hired by the Kuhl campaign NRCC, and reports on a possible calling technique:  late night fake Massa robo-calls.