The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Sean Carroll at 13-WHAM has done some work tracking down the current state of the recount, and he was kind enough to share it with me.

Sean reports that all absentee votes are in lockdown until a court hearing next Wednesday in Bath. That hearing will determine a standard by which all uncounted votes will be counted, with campaign oversight.

Counties differ in their absentee vote counting -- some include the numbers in the totals, others don't. It's possible that some military ballots won't be received until November 18th, two weeks after the election.

Here's Sean's count, with the proviso that Allegany's part of the count is approximate:

TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS SENT OUT: Approx. 22,000 (my math has 22,420, campaigns have a few less)

TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS RECEIVED: Approx. 17,000 (17,013 is what I have – campaigns are similar)

TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS COUNTED: Approx 5,500 (campaigns have b/n 5,500 – 5,700, I do too)

TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS IN LOCKDOWN: Approx. 11,500 + others yet to arrive

MASSA’S LEAD: 4,414 votes (288 more than last night, Monroe Co. updated their numbers for both camps)

This means Randy Kuhl needs roughly 8,000 of the 11,500 ballots outstanding.

Today's Corning Leader turnout story notes that turnout across the district was about 60% of registered voters, up from 49% in 2006. Turnout is always higher in Presidential years.

The district underperformed nationwide turnout, which was 63% 64.1% of eligible voting-age voters, the highest since even higher than 1960.

(Update: Found a source for turnout. I'm surprised that the voting-age population turnout (which is a larger population than the number of registered voters) is so much higher than the 29th's registered voter turnout.)

The area media stories on the race all have a different count of absentee ballots.

The Wellsville Daily Reporter pegs it at 12,000. The Democrat and Chronicle says 20,000, and WETM says "as many as" 16,900. The Corning Leader also says 16,900, which is a number it got from the Massa campaign.

In the D&C story, a Monroe County Board of Elections Supervisor says that the final tally won't be ready until November 14.

In 2006, Massa conceded as the ballots were being counted, since it soon became apparent that there was no realistic path to victory. Perhaps that will happen this year, though there's no need to rush.

By the way, in case that last post wasn't clear, I think this race is over, just as I thought the 2006 race was over on election night.

The 29th race is not the only race waiting for the final vote tally. The Minnesota Senate race is even tighter. It looks like the margin there is hundreds out of millions. Whatever you think of Al Franken, I thought his statement on the race struck the right tone, especially this paragraph:

The process, dictated by our laws, will be orderly, fair, and will take place within a matter of days. We won’t know for a little while who won this race, but at the end of the day, we will know that the voice of the electorate was clearly heard.

In 2006, Eric Massa exercised his rights as a candidate and waited for all votes to be counted before conceding. In 2008, Randy Kuhl is doing the same. That's a powerful statement about the rule of law.

Reader Elmer sends news that Randy Kuhl has moved to impound voting machines.

The Massa Campaign says that the current vote spread is 4,400 votes.

In case you missed it last night, Sean Carroll of WHAM reported that Amo Houghton and Eric Massa met last night:

Sean Carroll: Just got done talking Amo Houghton - and he just got here after visiting with Eric Massa!

Evan Dawson: Sean -- WOW WOW WOW. And why was he with Massa?

Sean Carroll: said he respects him - "stands for the right things" even though he's on the other side of the aisle. said he's still pulling for Randy, but after all "we're all Americans"

Amo Houghton would have racked up another 60/40 or 70/30 win last night against almost any Democrat, probably with my vote. If Republicans want to come back in New York State, they need to take a serious look at what Amo did right and what Randy Kuhl did wrong.

The AP has called the 29th race, so national and local media outlets are saying that it's over. However, Kuhl has not conceded, staking his claim on 20,000 or so uncounted absentee ballots.

This morning's CNN/AP tally shows Massa with a 4,400 vote lead, with 99% of the precincts counted.

To get a sense of the overall damage to the Republican party, Elmer sends this list from Politico.

Update: Here's the Leader story on the race. Massa agrees that every vote needs to be counted, and he's not declaring victory. The Leader pegs the absentee number as 12,000.

A few days ago someone asked what Massa was doing spending so much time in the Souther Tier in the last few days of the campaign. Last night, the the answer to that question became clear: He was winning the election.

In 2006, Kuhl won every Southern Tier county. This year, Massa won all the Southern Tier but Yates, Steuben and Schuyler. His margin of victory in Monroe was about the same as in '06, and he once again narrowly lost Ontario. Without the boost from those Tier counties, Randy Kuhl would have been re-elected.

Most of those counties are heavily Republican, so it's likely that Massa's margin of victory came not only from independent voters, but also from Republicans who were sending their party a message. It's also clear evidence that Massa's four years of appearances at Rotary meetings, union halls and town celebrations made a difference.

With 98% of the votes reported, Eric Massa holds a lead of a little more than 4,000 votes. That's a slightly smaller number than Kuhl's victory margin in 2006. Kuhl's margin stood after the absentee ballots were counted, and I assume that will be the case with Massa's margin.

Eric Massa will represent the 29th district in the 111th Congress. Congratulations to the Massa campaign.

This link will carry a live feed from Massa's party later this evening.