The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Here are all the county sites, some of which have election results tonight:

• Allegany County
• Cattaraugus County
• Chemung County
• Monroe County (not clear if they're posting results)
• Ontario County
• Schuyler County (not clear if they're posting results)
• Steuben County (not clear if they're posting results)
• Yates County

Here's CNN's 29th results page.

Evan Dawson at 13-WHAM has more on tonight's blogger portion of the CW-16 show. It will be broadcast on the Internet at 13-WHAM.com.

Howard Owens from The Batavian will be joining us.

The live blog here will start around 8:30 or so. Check in then to see what's happening.

I stood in line 10 minutes in Pittsford today at about 10:45. Almost half of my district had already voted.

DragonFlyEye says the lines were out the door first thing this morning at East Rochester.

Reader Elmer had no problems this morning in rural Steuben County.

Feel free to email or comment if you have a turnout story to share.

Here's Eric Massa at an event in the 12 Corners area of Brighton, a little over an hour ago, courtesy of Michael Parks. There's another one after the break.

The Board of Elections has posted final voter registration tallies. Overall, Democrats gained about 8,000 voters, and Republicans lost about 6,000, since 2006. There are also 7,000 more blanks.

That's good news for Massa, but with overall registration still favoring Republicans by about 50,000 voters, his task is still pretty similar to 2006: convincing Republicans.

Thanks to Sean Carroll for pointing this out. Also, note that the BOE is reporting "active" and "inactive" numbers in '08, but not in '06. I used the "inactive" number for an apples-to-apples comparison.

WENY reports on the candidates' activities yesterday.

The Star-Gazette has the scoop on Southern Tier TV election-night reporting.

The Corning Leader also has a local race story.

Polls just opened in New York. The weather forecast is still very good, though there's some early-morning fog in the Corning/Elmira area.

Here's my pre-game guide for tomorrow's election.

Let's begin about the non-issues. Though we'll be hearing a lot about long lines across the country, the 29th, which has lost population over the years, will have plenty of voting machines, and the election will probably run smoothly. The weather will be beautiful, and we'll have a big turnout because of interest in this race as well as the Presidential election.

In 2006, I posted a model that showed what Massa had to do to win. I didn't do that this year, but the basic formula for a Massa victory remains the same:

• Win Monroe County by at least 18 points. Massa needs to approach 60/40 here to offset the Southern Tier Republican vote.
• Edge out Kuhl in Ontario County, 51-49 or better.
• In the Southern Tier, Massa needs to avoid blowouts, perhaps beating Kuhl in a couple of counties like Chemung and Yates.

Monroe usually reports first. If Massa isn't destroying Kuhl in Monroe, he probably won't win. Also, big Monroe turnout numbers are a good sign, though those may be muddied by an increase in inner-city turnout because of Obama excitement.

In 2006 we knew who won a little after 10:30 PM. That's 26 crazy hours from now.

I was called twice this evening by live Massa volunteers reminding me to get out and vote tomorrow. I also got a robo-call from Bill Clinton, sponsored by the DCCC, telling me to be sure to fill in my entire ballot.