The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Reader Elmer sends today's Corning Leader editorial page [pdf], which includes a op-ed from Eric Massa, explaining his recent "No" votes.

I took a look through Tom Reed's YouTube channel and his campaign website to get an idea of what kind of challenge he'd provide Eric Massa if he decides to run.

Reed seems like a reasonable, affable guy, and he's probably well-liked in Corning. Though he was running against a fairly divisive blowhard, Frank Coccho, Reed wisely chose to show, not tell, to get the point across that he'd be a better Mayor. The statements I could find were generally positive and forward-looking.

Even though he makes a good impression, Reed is neither photogenic nor charismatic. Massa isn't either, and political contests aren't beauty pageants. But Reed is going to have to catch the attention of 29th district voters who don't know him, and he'll have to do it through TV and other media.

A fair amount of Reed's appeal in Corning was that he has deep roots in the community. Amo Houghton's endorsement [video], for example, made this point. (That video, by the way, is worth watching just to see Amo in action.) Reed's family history will probably attract some Corning votes, but Steuben County is already a lock for any Republican. His roots won't take him far in the Rochester suburbs.

What's most important about Reed is what he isn't and what he might be. He clearly isn't a hack Assembly or Senate member who's been marinating in the Albany sewer so long that he will bobble a campaign before it gets started. Jim Tedisco, who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in NY-20, is a good example of that kind of politician.

Reed might be willing to buck the rump of the Republican party, which is currently running purity tests and expelling anyone with even a hint of centrism. If he's going to win, Reed needs to be able to throw away the John Boehner gameplan, which only works in Red states, and explain to voters how he'll be more like Amo and less like Rush. Since Reed has made no statements on any Federal or State issue, his positions on the topics that will shape the 2010 campaign are unknown.

The New York Republican Party needs more young, reasonable politicians. Reed might be one of them, and though he faces an uphill climb in NY-29, he might be the Republican's best shot in 2010.

I opened up my D&C RSS feed this morning and found the following:

The story doesn't repeat the claim about the character of the shooters.

Eric Massa has a post at Rochesterturning about a Cancer Summit that he'll be co-hosting along with Camp Good Days on June 22 in Branchport.

Reader Elmer sends today's Corning Leader editorial page [pdf] which includes the Leader's positive take on Tom Reed's tenure as Mayor. Reed gets good marks for a number of common-sense initiatives.

Also not to be missed is a letter to the Editor from a local crank who simultaneously complains about being ignored by Eric Massa's office while saying "I must admit it, I got very short with the young gal answering his phone in Corning."

This morning's Corning Leader carries the news that Mayor Tom Reed will not seek re-election. Reed's statement said that he is "exploring an opportunity for public service that many have been encouraging me to pursue." Reed will make his decision on a run by July 1.

This morning's Corning Leader has two stories about Eric Massa. First, Massa presented an award to the founder of Camp Good Days. And, he commented on yesterday's reshuffle in the New York State Senate.

Finally, Massa was interviewed on GRITv about single-payer health care. You can watch the video after the break:

Reader Elmer sends today's Corning Leader opinion page [pdf], which includes Joe Dunning's column on two Corning politicians. One of them, Corning Mayor Tom Reed, has been mentioned as a possible opponent for Eric Massa. The other, Frank Coccho, had Reed's job until a spectacular crash and burn, and he's thinking about running again.

Dunning doesn't think either man will win. In the case of Reed, he cites two powerful reasons: name recognition and money. Anyone running for Massa's job will have to raise $2-3 million and become a known entity in Rochester. That's a tall order for Reed.

In theory, the 29th is a competitive district and Massa is in danger of losing his seat. In practice, it's tough to find someone to take a risk running against him, since he'll be well-financed and so far, as Dunning says, "Massa has done a pretty good job doing what he said he was going to do".

Reader Elmer sends today's Corning Leader front page [pdf], which has a story about the Corning Mayoral election. Former Mayor Tom Coccho is talking about a run because current Mayor Tom Reed is seriously considering a run for the 29th seat.

“If the opportunity presents itself, I’d be flattered and consider it,” Reed said. “It’s something I would think heavily about and I would seriously consider.”

Reed said he'd make his re-election decision by the start of next month.

My guess is that, if Reed chooses not to run, he'll probably be Massa's Republican opponent in 2010. He'll need the rest of this year and the beginning of next to start fundraising, so an early start is smart. None of the other establishment players (such as George Winner and Maggie Brooks) have shown any serious interest in the seat. Reed is well-regarded in Corning, so his main challenge will be getting some name recognition in the Rochester area.

The Albany Project has a copy of a mailer sent by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) attacking Eric Massa for his vote against the Iraq supplemental. I live in the Northern part of the district and didn't get a copy of the mailer, so it is apparently a targeted mailing.