The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Polls in New York open at Noon and close at 9.  I've already talked with someone who went to their polling place, found it empty and wondered what was going on.

All Democratic races are proportional except for West Virginia (18 delegates) and Montana (25 delegates).  If races are tight in all the proportional states (with home-states of New York/New Jersey balanced by Illinois), then these two mountain states might be more important than one would think.  That's about as astute as my analysis gets, unfortunately.

After the break, an overly-cute Obama video, for which I apologize in advance.

The raw footage of Randy Kuhl's interview with Rochester's WHAM-13 has been posted (and embedded below).

Highlights:

• "Taking every step to become a candidate in the next election" (0:45).
• He's never had any pressure from his party to vote for a bill (5:00).
• The Iguazu Falls trip was to study drug interdiction (7:15) and it built a relationship with Brazilian legislators (8:00).
• S-CHIP extension that he supported (and was the subject of the mailer) is "actually an expansion" (10:40)
• Mailings aren't confusing, they tell people that he "supported S-CHIP for poor children first" (12:10)
• Why didn't Kuhl speak out against earmarks in 2005 when he said that "earmarks are an important tool" (12:50).  Answer:  He has, "internally in the system".  Also, we should be taking federal money however it comes (14:45).
• Iraq. (17:00)  The point of the surge was a political solution.  Is it working?  Answer:  Surge has stabilized the country, need security for a government.  Governmental reconciliation is not going as fast as Kuhl would like, but "firmly convinced we are on the right course". 
• How long can Iraq fail without us getting out? (19:15). "All I know is what I'm fed." If we hadn't seen success in the last surge, we wouldn't be in a position to continue our support.  Our next timeline is March.  "General Petreus, you're the leader, tell us what's going on."  
• What about McCain's 100 years comment (21:00)?  "In many cases countries don't want us to leave...that may very well be what happens and what Sen. McCain was talking about."

In the accompanying blog entry, Reporter Evan Dawson talks about the importance of government transparency.  Amen, brother.

Rochester's WHAM (Channel 13) has a story about Kuhl's Brazil trip that highlights the run-around they've been getting from the different committees and offices that are supposed to be releasing information about the trip.  The story illustrates all the tricks of non-disclosure disclosure.  These include unclear responsibility, releasing documents in Washington DC on paper instead of via email or over the Internet, and refusal of the main actors to acknowledge a problem.

WHAM should feel good about the hard work they're doing to track down this story.  Even better, they let bloggers embed their stories, which I've done after the break:
DayPortPlayer.newPlayer({articleID:"190145",bannerAdObjectID:"5",videoAdObjectID:"4",videoAdConDefID:"2",playerInstanceID:"27574A89-06D1-CD92-4444-22719C5099EC",domain:"video.wokr13.com"});

Ontario GOP has posted his interview with Randy Kuhl.  It's a good run-down of Kuhl's spin on some important election-day issues.

To his credit, GOP asks a couple of questions about issues that will be important election issues.  On S-CHIP, Kuhl's justification for voting against hasn't changed much since last Fall:

Their plan also enables illegal aliens to fraudulently enroll in Medicaid and SCHIP by weakening the proof of citizenship. Also, their bill is the most regressive tax increase in American history and taxes the poor to benefit the rich. SCHIP was also designed for children, but the Democratic extension increases the number of adults on SCHIP, which allows even more resources to be taken away from low-income kids. And finally and most importantly, SCHIP was designed for low-income, poor children. The majority forgot that when they designed their extension, because there are still poor children not covered. We must ensure that we cover the low-income children first before considering expanding the program.

I've debunked some of these claims earlier (see this post on the immigrant issue).  The "tax the poor" spin is an argument that poor people will bear the brunt of the tax increase on tobacco that partially funds S-CHIP expansion.  The adult issue is a legitimate question, but the states that received waivers for adults were already covering all the kids allowed to be covered by S-CHIP, so the spin that adult funding is shorting kids is wrong.  Also, part of the reason that poor children are not covered is that states are allowed to set coverage levels, and some fund S-CHIP at lower levels.

On the trip to Brazil, I think Kuhl over-reaches when he says this:

This trip was enlightening and desperately needed. And for those people that want to belittle it for political gain, do not understand that as a country you can not hide your head in the sand and think that everything will be fine. This is a global economy and we must learn from one another to benefit from the successes and failures that we have experienced.

The obvious rejoinder to this is that there's no desperate need for anyone to stay at five-star hotels and fly on first-class military charters to learn about Brazil.

Iraq is not mentioned in the interview, which I think reflects the spin that the working surge means Iraq no longer matters.  I don't think that wish will hold up to the reality of the election.

Unless you've been hiding in a cave, you know that the New York State Presidential primary is tomorrow.  I've contributed a guest post to Rochesterturning in support of Barack Obama, and you can view Obama's latest ad after the jump. 

The New York Democratic Party has a special webpage full of information for Democrats.  There doesn't seem to be a similar page for Republicans. 

For those interested in an overview of polls, there's an excellent post at pollster.com which summarizes the recent history of every poll in every Super Tuesday state in one easy-to-read chart.

With favorite son Rudy Guliani out of the running, Randy Kuhl has officially endorsed John McCain.  Eric Massa is tacitly supporting Senator Hillary Clinton. 

The FEC has updated fundraising summaries for both Eric Massa and Randy Kuhl.  The totals for Political Action Committee (PAC) and individual contributions are essentially mirror opposites for the two candidates.  The majority of Kuhl's money is PAC money, and the majority of Massa's is contributions from individuals.

Since Kuhl continues to rely on corporate donors, it's no surprise that he's having trouble raising funds.  Most observers believe that House Democrats will increase their majority, so giving money to a minority back-bencher is not a great investment in influence buying.   And, as commenter James pointed out, the rumors about Kuhl's retirement are probably going to lead corporate donors to hold off on giving to Kuhl until they're sure he's in the race.  Corporate contributors to James Walsh (NY-25) were burned by his late retirement.  They won't want to make the same mistake twice.

Kuhl isn't the only Republican having trouble fundraising. The Hill newspaper has a detailed analysis listing other Republican incumbents who have fallen behind their opponents in the money race.

Randy Kuhl was asked about retirement rumors at a taping of Coleman and Company, WETM's Sunday political talk show.  He repeated his stock answer that he will be deciding whether to run in the next couple of months.

I've read a lot of rumors in the past couple days, but I haven't seen any sourced from Kuhl's staff.  Randy's recent, uninspiring fundraising numbers will probably fuel still more speculation, but I don't think he's going to retire.

Kuhl's seniority, or lack of it, is the first reason that I think he's staying put. Twenty-eight of his Republican colleagues just retired, almost all of whom are more senior than him.  Kuhl's recent appointment as deputy whip indicates that he's interested in leadership, so those retirements give Kuhl a better opportunity to move up.  Randy's a healthy 64. He can reasonably expect at least a decade or more behind the plow.  His prospects for attaining a significant leadership or committee post in that timeframe improve whenever another Republican throws in the towel.

The psychology of seniority for a back-bencher like Kuhl is quite different from a 20-year vet like James Walsh (NY-25).  Walsh and the other retirees know that they're looking at a couple of grim sessions for Republicans.  Democrats will almost certainly strengthen their hold on the House in 2008,  It's likely that they'll increase their majority in the Senate, and they might also occupy the White House.  If you've already tasted the sweet nectar of a senior committee or leadership spot, the prospect of waiting a couple more sessions until you do it again may not be worth the agita of defending your seat.  If you're like a back-bencher like Kuhl, you knew coming in that you were going to have to put in your time, and it really doesn't matter if your party is in the majority or minority while you're reeling in the years.

Finally, there's redistricting.  In 2012, Western New York is going to lose a seat in Congress, and it's likely that the new district lines will carve out only one "safe Republican" seat.  There's no doubt that, if such a seat exists, it will include the Southern Tier.  If Kuhl can hold off Massa's challenge and survive until then, he might end up with a safer seat than he has today.

Kuhl's retirement is great fodder for speculation, but a reality check shows that he's got plenty of reasons to go down fighting.

Two stories in the last couple of days show that the economy of the 29th district is steadily moving from one based on well-paid, skilled manufacturing jobs to a lower-paid, less-skilled, service economy.

In Rochester, the Democrat and Chronicle reports that Kodak, once the engine of the Rochester economy and number one employer, has falled to number three.  Wegmans, the local grocery chain, moved from third to second on the D&C's ranking.  The University of Rochester, which runs Strong Hospital, is number one. 

Elmira's WETM reports on Governor Spitzer's appearance in Erwin, where he cut the ribbon at a remodeled Corning plant.  The new occupant, Sitel, plans to hire 400 $8/hour callers for its call center there.

This kind of economic news is another reminder that news of recession is nothing new to the residents of the 29th.  The economy here has been shrinking for decades.

Reader James pointed out that the FEC has posted the 4th Quarter 2007 fundraising numbers.

Eric Massa out-raised Randy Kuhl by about $120K.  Massa raised $276K, compared to Kuhl's $157K.   Massa also has more cash on hand, with $415K compared to Kuhl's $327K. 

Final national Congressional committee numbers are also in.  The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a 7-to-1 cash on hand advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The Politico also reports that some donors are angry about the late notice given by GOP retirees, since a lot of corporate donors gave large donations which will have to be returned. 

Randy Kuhl has endorsed John McCain for president, even though he disagrees with McCain's moderate immigration policy, and his involvement with campaign finance reform.

The New York Times has a roundup of the large number (28) of Republican retirements in the House:

“The open-seat situation is so lopsided as to deny Republicans any chance of taking back the House in 2008,” said David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan publication.

Compounding their problems, Republicans face a worrisome financial gap in comparison to House Democrats. New fund-raising figures to be made public on Thursday will show that the national campaign committee of the House Democrats ended 2007 with $35 million in the bank and $1.3 million in debt. The Republicans’ committee had $5 million in the bank and $2 million in debt.