Here's my pre-game guide for tomorrow's election.
Let's begin about the non-issues. Though we'll be hearing a lot about long lines across the country, the 29th, which has lost population over the years, will have plenty of voting machines, and the election will probably run smoothly. The weather will be beautiful, and we'll have a big turnout because of interest in this race as well as the Presidential election.
In 2006, I posted a model that showed what Massa had to do to win. I didn't do that this year, but the basic formula for a Massa victory remains the same:
Monroe usually reports first. If Massa isn't destroying Kuhl in Monroe, he probably won't win. Also, big Monroe turnout numbers are a good sign, though those may be muddied by an increase in inner-city turnout because of Obama excitement.
In 2006 we knew who won a little after 10:30 PM. That's 26 crazy hours from now.
I was called twice this evening by live Massa volunteers reminding me to get out and vote tomorrow. I also got a robo-call from Bill Clinton, sponsored by the DCCC, telling me to be sure to fill in my entire ballot.
I will be on CW-16 tomorrow night starting at 9:30 to discuss the election. Exile from The Albany Project will be there, too.
We will be live-blogging with DragonFlyEye. Check back here around 9:30 tomorrow for the live-blog, and I hope anyone interested will join in.
Update: CW-16 is a Rochester TV station affiliated with 13-WHAM. I believe they will simulcast on the Internet at their website here. Tune in to the live blog tomorrow for more information.
The Massa campaign has released Eric Massa's final day schedule. Massa will vote in Corning around Noon. His party is at the Radisson Hotel in Corning. Full details after the break.
7:30 AM-8:00 AM
ERIC MASSA AND VOLUNTEERS VISIBILITY EVENT IN ROCHESTER
Location: Twelve Corners, Brighton, NYClick here for a map to the location
8:35 AM-9:00 AM
ERIC MASSA VISITS VOLUNTEERS IN CANANDAIGUA
Location: Massa for Congress Canandaigua Headquarters
336 North Main Street (2nd Floor) Canandaigua, NY 14424Click here for a map to the location
10:30 AM-11:00AM
ERIC MASSA STOPS BY THE BATH DEMOCRATIC HEADQUARTERS TO THANK VOLUNTEERS
Location: Bath Democratic Headquarters
7 Liberty Street Bath, NY 14810Click here for a map to the location
12:05 PM-12:30 PM
ERIC MASSA VOTES WITH HIS FAMILY
Location: USWA Local 1000 Union Hall
100 Civic Center Plaza Corning, NY 14830Click here for a map to the location
1:20 PM-2:00 PM
ERIC MASSA GREETS HORNELL VOLUNTEERS
Location: Chamber of Commerce Building
40 Main Street Hornell, NY 14843Click here for a map to the location
3:10 PM-4:00 PM
ERIC MASSA MEETS NYSUT VOLUNTEERS
Location: NYSUT Headquarters
100 West Church Street #200 Elmira, NY 14901Click here for a map to the location
4:05 PM-4:30 PM
ERIC MASSA VISITS VOLUNTEERS IN ELMIRA
Location: Elmira Democratic Headquarters
411 West Church Street Elmira, NY 14901Click here for a map to the location
5:30 PM-6:00 PM
ERIC MASSA THANKS VOLUNTEERS IN CORNING AND MAKES LAST MINUTE GET OUT THE VOTE CALLS
Location: Massa for Congress Headquarters
79 West Market Street Corning, NY 14830
Randy Kuhl will vote in Pulteney tomorrow at 10. He'll end the day in a Hammondsport, with a party at the Pleasant Valley Wine Company. Full details after the break:
10:00am- Congressman Kuhl Votes at Pulteney Town Hall
10:45am- Depart for Cuba
12:10pm- 61st Annual Election Day Luncheon
Moonwink's
9302 Jackson Hill Rd
Cuba, NY 147271:45pm- Depart Cuba for Honeoye
4:00pm- Arrive at United Church of Christ
Turkey Dinner - well attended - 4-7
8758 Main Street
Honeoye, NY
4:30pm- Depart Honeoye for Canandaigua
5:00pm- Arrive at Canandaigua Academy
Kiwanis Spaghetti Dinner
435 East St
Canandaigua, NY 144245:30pm- Depart for Pittsford
6:00pm- Arrive at Pittsford Rotary Pasta Dinner
Pittsford-Mendon High School
472 Mendon Rd
Pittsford, NY 145346:30pm- Depart for Hammondsport
7:00pm- Victory Party at Pleasant Valley Wine Company Visitors Center in Hammondsport, New York. 8260 Pleasant Valley Road, Hammondsport, New York
Headline of the day: New York's Sleepy 29th Home to Hard-Fought Campaign.
You gotta hand it to WROC for keeping the Smug in Smugtown. They must be saving "Hicks Go to Polls" for tomorrow's story.
This was at Gro-Moore Farms in Henrietta, courtesy of the Kuhl campaign.
Rochesterturning has some more video of Massa's appearance at St John's Meadows.
Evan Dawson at Channel 13 talks about franking. In related news, I received my copy of Randy Kuhl's November newsletter, the Kuhl Khronicle, right on time today. Members of Congress are restricted from sending regular mail before an election, but there's apparently no such restriction on email.
Update: Meghan Tisinger writes to clarify: Kuhl is allowed to send emails to subscribers on a mailing list at any time, but not mass-emailings. Since I signed up for the Khronicle, I got the email. According to the rules, this exception applies only to emails to subscriber lists.
I just mis-stated Massa's position on HR 676 in a previous post. He supports it, and I've corrected the post. Sorry about that.
That said, Massa's opponents point to Section 101 of the bill as justification that illegal immigrants will be supported. Aside from Massa's flat statement that he doesn't support health care for illegal immigrants, I don't read it that way.
Section 101, like a lot of draft legislation, contains a bit of a contraction. On the one hand, it says that "all individuals" are covered. On the other hand, it requires a registration program for a health insurance card. The bill doesn't include much guidance on the whole registration program, but it's common sense that most illegal immigrants aren't going to participate in that kind of program.
More importantly, the reality of the moment is that many illegal immigrants are getting effectively free health care in our emergency rooms as we speak. The issue is the immigrants' presence in the United States. As long as they're here, somebody's going to be paying the bill for their health care, and that somebody is usually us, directly or indirectly.
Reader Phil Palmesano sent along the full press release from Republican/Conservative party chairs, which is embedded after the break. Their basic argument is that universal health care, which Massa supports, is too expensive and that it will cause an increase in middle-class taxes.
The Kuhl ads on health care and this press release all point to one source, Rep. John Conyers' [D-MI-14] cost-justification for a House bill. The bill, HR 676, has not been specifically endorsed by Massa, who also has his own plan.
It's also unlikely that this bill will be the final form of health care reform that is enacted under an Obama administration (assuming he's elected). Obama's health care plan is much more conservative.
That said, the supposedly scary thing about the bill is the 3.3% payroll tax increase that would fund it. That's $1,200/month for a family making $40,000/year.
Assuming that this family is not insured, they're paying more than that in medical expenses. If they are self-insured, then they are paying more in insurance. If they have employer insurance, their employer will save much more than $1,200, and perhaps they'll stay in business a bit longer to provide that $40,000 paycheck.
So, Conyers' plan, which, again, Massa has never said he supports, doesn't look that scary to me.
Finally, the press release, and Kuhl's ads, claim that the Massa supports health care for illegal immigrants. That's a mis-reading of the bill that Massa doesn't support. It also said that Massa supports limiting doctor choice, which is precisely not what Massa's plan says.
I'd suggest that everyone voting tomorrow who cares about this issue take a look at four things:
Update: Thanks to Meghan Tisinger from Kuhl's office for the correction: Massa does support HR 676.
LOCAL PARTY CHAIRS CRITICIZE ERIC MASSA’S PLAN FOR GOVERNMENT- RUN, SINGLE PAYER HEALTH CARE PLAN
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
CONTACT: PHIL PALMESANO – 607-857-0536
(CORNING, NY) – CHAIRS OF LOCAL PARTY ORGANIZATIONS ANNOUNCED THEIR OPPOSITIONhttp://www.johnmccain.com/content/default.aspx?guid=8475c713-a541-4b97-a2aa-800e35da37bb TO ERIC MASSA’S SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT- RUN, SINGLE-PAYER HEALTH CARE PLAN(1).
“ERIC MASSA SUPPORTS A GOVERNMENT RUN HEALTH CARE PLAN THAT WILL ELIMINATE EMPLOYEER-BASED HEALTH INSURANCE PLANS, PUT HEALTH CARE DECISIONS IN THE HANDS OF BUREAUCRATS IN WASHINGTON INSTEAD OF DOCTORS, RATION CARE, LIMIT CHOICE OF DOCTORS, AND PROVIDE FREE HEALTH INSURANCE TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS(2)(3),” SAID THE PARTY CHAIRS IN A JOINT STATEMENT. THE PARTY CHAIRS INCLUDE:
DON GWINNER, STEUBEN COUNTY CONSERVATIVE CHAIRMAN
LOUIS DECICCO, CHEMUNG COUNTY CONSERVATIVE CHAIRMAN
LINDA MOORE, SCHUYLER COUNTY CONSERVATIVE CHAIRWOMAN
BILL HATCH, STEUBEN COUNTY REPUBLICAN CHAIRMAN
PHIL BARNES, SCHUYLER COUNTY REPUBLICAN CHAIRMAN
MIKE KRUSEN, CHEMUNG COUNTY REPUBLICAN CHAIRMAN
MATT SHICK, STEUBEN COUNTY INDEPENDENCE PARTY CHAIRMAN
MICHAEL HILLMAN, CHEMUNG COUNTY INDEPENDENCE PARTY CHAIRMAN
PHIL PALMESANO, CORNING CITY REPUBLICAN CHAIRMAN
“MASSA’S PLAN WILL COST TAXPAYERS OVER $1 TRILLION(4), SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING TAXES, INCLUDING PAYROLL TAXES, COSTING A FAMILY OF FOUR EARNING $40,000/YEAR AN ADDITIONAL $1200/YR IN TAXES(5),” ADDED THE CHAIRS.
“DURING THESE UNCERTAIN ECONOMIC TIMES, WHEN FAMILIES ARE STRUGGLING TO PAY THEIR BILLS, THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO BE INCREASING TAXES AND THAT IS WHAT MR. MASSA IS PROPOSING WITH HIS SUPPORT FOR THIS $1 TRILLION GOVERNMENT-RUN HEALTH CARE PLAN.”
“ERIC MASSA TALKS ABOUT CHANGE, BUT HE IS CHANGE TAXPAYERS JUST CAN’T AFFORD,” THE CHAIRS CONCLUDED.
-30-
SOURCES:
(1) OLEAN TIMES HEARLAD 9/16/08 – MASSA VOWS SUPPORT FOR NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PLAN AND WOULD BACK HR.676 IF ELECTED
(2) WXXI, 9/10/08
(3) SECTION 101 OF HR.676
(4) U.S REP JOHN CONYERS WEBSITE – FINANCING HR.676 http://www.house.gov/conyers/news_hr676_2.shtml
(5) GRAND RAPIDS BUSINESS JOURNAL, 7/18/05 – U.S REP JOHN CONYERS (SPONSOR OF HR. 676) LEGISLATIVE ASSISTANT DISCUSSES HR.676 AND HOW EVERYONE PAYS – “SO IT’S EASY TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH EVERYONE IS GOING TO PAY. IF YOU’RE WORKING, YOU JUST DO THE MATH: 3.3 PERCENT (PAYROLL TAX ON ALL EARNINGS) THAT IS YOUR CONTRIBUTION.”
The Star-Gazette has a story on Republican and Conservative party chairs' opposition to single-payer health care, as well as a piece on Massa's campaign day.
The Kuhl campaign sent Randy's morning schedule, which is embedded after the break.
7:10am- Depart Hammondsport for Olean
8:45am- Arrive at Tom's (Tom's West State News)
620 West Street
Olean, NYRetail stop with Jim Snyder, Assemblyman Joe Giglio, Mike Brisky
9:20am- Depart for St. Bonaventure
9:30am- Speak to Political Participation Class
3261 West State Road
St. Bonaventure, NY 1477810:30am- Meeting with College Republicans and tour
President's Board Room
Tom Buttafarro will accompany you for the morning.Jim D'Risio Director of Admissions will also accompany.
11:30am- Depart St. Bonaventure for Retail Stop and lunch
11:45am- Arrive at Beef N' Barrel
146 N. Union Street
Olean, NYEarl McElfresh, Assemblyman Joe Giglio, Mike Brisky, Mayor Carucci to attend.
1:15pm- Depart Olean
Tomorrow's weather forecast just keeps getting better: partly to mostly sunny with highs in the mid-60s.
No word yet on Randy Kuhl's schedule for today.
Eric Massa's minute-by-minute location is included below. Massa will spend most of the day in the Southern Tier and end up at his Victor office.
6:45 AM-7:30 AM
ERIC MASSA VISITS DRESSER RAND AND CUTCO
Location: Dresser Rand
130 South Union Street Olean, NY 14760Click here for a map to the location
7:35 AM-7:55 AM
ERIC MASSA STOPS BY A LOCAL DINER TO MEET AND GREET WITH WESTERN NEW YORKERS
Location: Tom’s West State Street News
620 West State Street Olean, NY 14760Click here for a map to the location
8:00 AM-8:15 AM
ERIC MASSA MEETS WORKERS AT STROEHMANN’S BAKERIES
Location: Stroehmann’s Bakeries
111 North 2nd Street Olean, NY 14760Click here for a map to the location
8:20 AM-9:00 AM
ERIC MASSA MEETS AND GREETS CUSTOMERS AT THE LOCAL TIM HORTON'S
Location: Tim Horton's
3012 West State Street Olean, NY 14760Click here for a map to the location
9:05 AM-9:30 AM
ERIC MASSA STOPS BY THE OLEAN HEADQUARTERS
Location: Olean Headquarters
315 West State Street Olean, NY 14760Click here for a map to the location
9:30 AM-11:00 AM
ERIC MASSA GOES DOOR TO DOOR IN OLEAN
Location: Olean, NYClick here for a map to the location
1:15 PM-2:00 PM
ERIC MASSA MEETS TEAMSTERS AT POLLIO DAIRIES
Location: Pollio Dairies
8596 Main Street Campbell, NY 14821Click here for a map to the location
2:45 PM-3:45 PM
ERIC MASSA STOPS AT SCHWEIZER AIRCRAFT TO MEET UAW MEMBERS
Location: Schweizer Aircraft Corporation
1250 Schweizer Road Horseheads, NY 14845Click here for a map to the location
3:45 PM-4:45 PM
ERIC MASSA GOES DOOR TO DOOR IN HORSEHEADS
Location: Horseheads, NYClick here for a map to the location
6:45 PM-7:00 PM
ERIC MASSA MEETS AND GREETS WITH VOLUNTEERS IN VICTOR
Location: Victor Headquarters
139 Turk Hill Road Victor, NY 14564