The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Today's news that Chris Van Hollen [MD-8] has agreed to continue at the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee makes this as good a time as any to evaluate the presence of the DCCC in the 29th race.

Unlike last cycle, the DCCC poured real money into the 29th this year, spending almost $1 million on ads and mailers. This money was spent entirely on one message: Randy Kuhl voted for free trade legislation that hurt the district.

Whether that message resonated in the 29th is anyone's guess. Even though the TV ad contained one misleading claim (it tried to tie jobs lost because of NAFTA to Kuhl, who wasn't in Congress when NAFTA passed), that distortion didn't become a campaign issue. I assume part of the reason was that the NRCC released a distorted ad around the same time.

In that respect, Eric Massa was lucky. In neighboring NY-26, Howard Owens at the Batavian thinks the DCCC caused real damage:

Whatever chance Kryzan had, the DCCC killed it. First, the negative ads were over the top and in no way truthful. Second, they also crowded out Kryzan's message and didn't allow Alice to be Alice. In the end, they played right into the Lee/GOP strategy of muting Kryzan's plans and policy voice.

The DCCC spent almost $2 million on that race.

I used to think Massa was unlucky because the DCCC wouldn't recognize that the 29th was winnable and only committed money at the last minute. Now I think he's lucky that the DCCC didn't spend more in the 29th. Their cookie-cutter, misleading ads and one-size-fits-all message are often a hindrance, not a help, to the candidates they are trying to support.

The Star-Gazette has some more details on the counting procedure.

The Democratic and Republican election commissioners from each county will ride together to each voting machine in every district in their county.

Each campaign shall be allowed two operatives to accompany the commissioners.

The commissioners and the campaign operatives shall open each machine and allow all present to read and record the results.

Every board of elections shall provide each operative with a copy of the congressional race results from each voting district to compare in the field with the actual machine counter being observed.

The process shall not start until all operatives from each campaign are present.

Each operative shall have a full opportunity to look at each counter number on each machine.

In addition, all paper ballots — including absentee, military, emergency ballots and affidavits — will be counted in each election district starting Nov. 17. Again, operatives from each campaign will be allowed to observe the process.

Each ballot will be examined one at a time on a table large enough to accommodate the campaign operatives and board of election staffs, Pulos said.

If either side objects to any ballots counted during the process, those ballots will be set aside for review by a judge.

2008 was a brutal year for Republican incumbents. The economic crisis, a war that most Americans believe was unnecessary, and the most unpopular President in modern history were major obstacles. These factors alone could cause a loss for an average Member of Congress.

Randy Kuhl was in some ways above-average, because he had a 20+ year relationship with constituents in the Southern Tier. Randy is a household name there, yet his loss in some Southern Tier counties lost him the election. My view is that Randy lost because he lost that connection.

Today's Star-Gazette has a couple of analysis pieces. One, by Erin Kelly, points out that Republicans are down to a couple House seats. The other, by David Kubissa, points out the role of Monroe County in the 29th.

It's been a hell of year for politics, and the race in the 29th was just one of the many dramatic races across the country. I'm going to post my take on each of the candidates in the next couple of days, but first I want to say a word about the candidates' staffs. Both went out of their way to be courteous to me this year.

Eric Massa and his staff have treated me in an exemplary fashion. I was invited to press conferences, put on the same press release list as district reporters, and questions I asked via email was answered quickly. Massa has a first-rate press operation, and it was a major part of his victory. Thanks especially to Jared Smith, Massa's Communications Director, who went out of his way to be helpful.

Randy Kuhl's staff could have chosen to ignore me, but they, too, responded to queries quickly and sent press releases. I understand why they didn't invite me to his press conferences, but other than that, I have no complaints. Justin Stokes, Kuhl's Campaign Manager, was very helpful, and Meghan Tisinger, his Communications Director, was not only courteous, she would also point out errors in posts, which I greatly appreciated.

A Congressional campaign or office is a direct reflection of the candidate or Member of Congress. I have a few critical things to say about the candidates, but that's no reflection on their staffs. Both staffs worked hard on this campaign. Any mistakes I saw were strategic, and the fault of the candidates, not the staffs.

Reader Elmer sends today's Corning Leader front page [pdf], which reports that the Kuhl and Massa campaigns have agreed to a final count of absentee ballots on November 17. This will allow time for military ballots to arrive, so the one count will be final.

The Corning Leader and the Ithaca Journal have counting stories.

In the Leader's story, Randy Kuhl's attorney says that the Kuhl campaign would be open to counting ballots before Wednesday's court date in Bath.

In Journal examines a couple of instances of broken voting machines in Chemung and Steuben County. In Chemung, voters were issued emergency ballots until a new machine could be obtained. In Steuben, a machine for disabled voters was dropped before the election in the September primary, but no votes were on the machine at the time. Both of those instances were cited in Kuhl's injunction filing.

In both stories, Kuhl spokesman Meghan Tisingner said it's inaccurate to say that it's impossible for Randy Kuhl to win.

Conservative blogger Philbrick at Mustard Street posts his first salvo in the campaign to unseat Eric Massa. Philbrick calls on his fellow conservatives to attend Massa's public meetings, ask questions and post videos. He thinks the result will be disaster for Massa:

Anyone who's interacted with Massa in unscripted circumstances is aware of the limitations of intellect and social personality skills that set up Massa nicely for public embarrassment.

In this statement, Philbrick commits the same error that lost Randy Kuhl the election: believing the caricature of Massa that Republicans tried to make stick for the last two elections.

Contrary to what you read in comments by some Republicans here and elsewhere, Massa is neither dumb nor socially retarded. I've spent hours listening to him answer questions from the press, and I've asked him a few tough ones myself. I've heard a few dumb things come out of his mouth, but not many. He's no Joe Biden.

Unlike a lot of politicians, Massa writes his own script and stays on it. Republicans might not like the script, but they shouldn't believe Massa lacks intelligence.

That said, Massa's definitely an acquired taste. The way I put it is that his volume knob is always at 11. Judging from election results, it appears that a number of Republicans actually like the guy. The Republican Massa voters I've heard from all pointed to his personality as one of the reasons they voted for him. They felt that he would be an independent voice and a "good fighter" (exact quote).

In four years of almost constant campaigning in the Southern Tier, Massa answered a lot of tough questions from Republicans. From what I've seen, he enjoys it. A few questions at town meetings aren't going to derail Massa's election.

What's going to stop Massa in two years is a good Republican candidate who can raise money and articulate a positive agenda that addresses real issues. He or she will have to be accepted in the Southern Tier and the Rochester suburbs. This candidate will need to spend a lot of time working the district.

Does such a Republican exist? I challenge Mustard Street and the other conservative bloggers in the area to name one person who has the talent and the grit to unseat Massa.

Massa Campaign Manager Justin Schall just had a press conference outlining the current state of absentee ballots. His numbers are roughly the same as Sean Carroll's.

The Massa campaign believes the absentee ballots will break roughly the same as the general election ballots, making a Kuhl victory a "statistical impossibility". In 2006, the Massa campaign won the absentee ballot count by 1,500 votes.

Schall would not claim victory outright, but he said that he believed that their 4,400 vote margin will grow.

This afternoon, lawyers for the Massa and Kuhl campaign will meet to discuss the possibility of opening ballots earlier than next Wednesday, which is the date when the campaigns are appearing in court in Bath. However, the timing of ballot opening is ultimately up to the discretion of the judge in the case, working with each county's election commissioners. The speed of ballot counting is also dependent on resources available in each county.

Schall explained that, as was the case in 2006, at some point in the process it will be mathematically impossible for Kuhl to win. Though every vote will be counted, it's likely that the winner will be known before the counting is over.

Massa will be attending Freshman Member of Congress orientation in Washington, DC next week, so he's beginning the transition process.

WHAM has posted the full raw video of a post-election interview of Eric Massa by Sean Carroll.