The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Massa Campaign Manager Justin Schall just had a press conference outlining the current state of absentee ballots. His numbers are roughly the same as Sean Carroll's.

The Massa campaign believes the absentee ballots will break roughly the same as the general election ballots, making a Kuhl victory a "statistical impossibility". In 2006, the Massa campaign won the absentee ballot count by 1,500 votes.

Schall would not claim victory outright, but he said that he believed that their 4,400 vote margin will grow.

This afternoon, lawyers for the Massa and Kuhl campaign will meet to discuss the possibility of opening ballots earlier than next Wednesday, which is the date when the campaigns are appearing in court in Bath. However, the timing of ballot opening is ultimately up to the discretion of the judge in the case, working with each county's election commissioners. The speed of ballot counting is also dependent on resources available in each county.

Schall explained that, as was the case in 2006, at some point in the process it will be mathematically impossible for Kuhl to win. Though every vote will be counted, it's likely that the winner will be known before the counting is over.

Massa will be attending Freshman Member of Congress orientation in Washington, DC next week, so he's beginning the transition process.

Sean Carroll at 13-WHAM has done some work tracking down the current state of the recount, and he was kind enough to share it with me.

Sean reports that all absentee votes are in lockdown until a court hearing next Wednesday in Bath. That hearing will determine a standard by which all uncounted votes will be counted, with campaign oversight.

Counties differ in their absentee vote counting -- some include the numbers in the totals, others don't. It's possible that some military ballots won't be received until November 18th, two weeks after the election.

Here's Sean's count, with the proviso that Allegany's part of the count is approximate:

TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS SENT OUT: Approx. 22,000 (my math has 22,420, campaigns have a few less)

TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS RECEIVED: Approx. 17,000 (17,013 is what I have – campaigns are similar)

TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS COUNTED: Approx 5,500 (campaigns have b/n 5,500 – 5,700, I do too)

TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS IN LOCKDOWN: Approx. 11,500 + others yet to arrive

MASSA’S LEAD: 4,414 votes (288 more than last night, Monroe Co. updated their numbers for both camps)

This means Randy Kuhl needs roughly 8,000 of the 11,500 ballots outstanding.

Today's Corning Leader turnout story notes that turnout across the district was about 60% of registered voters, up from 49% in 2006. Turnout is always higher in Presidential years.

The district underperformed nationwide turnout, which was 63% 64.1% of eligible voting-age voters, the highest since even higher than 1960.

(Update: Found a source for turnout. I'm surprised that the voting-age population turnout (which is a larger population than the number of registered voters) is so much higher than the 29th's registered voter turnout.)

The area media stories on the race all have a different count of absentee ballots.

The Wellsville Daily Reporter pegs it at 12,000. The Democrat and Chronicle says 20,000, and WETM says "as many as" 16,900. The Corning Leader also says 16,900, which is a number it got from the Massa campaign.

In the D&C story, a Monroe County Board of Elections Supervisor says that the final tally won't be ready until November 14.

In 2006, Massa conceded as the ballots were being counted, since it soon became apparent that there was no realistic path to victory. Perhaps that will happen this year, though there's no need to rush.

By the way, in case that last post wasn't clear, I think this race is over, just as I thought the 2006 race was over on election night.

Reader Elmer sends news that Randy Kuhl has moved to impound voting machines.

The Massa Campaign says that the current vote spread is 4,400 votes.

In case you missed it last night, Sean Carroll of WHAM reported that Amo Houghton and Eric Massa met last night:

Sean Carroll: Just got done talking Amo Houghton - and he just got here after visiting with Eric Massa!

Evan Dawson: Sean -- WOW WOW WOW. And why was he with Massa?

Sean Carroll: said he respects him - "stands for the right things" even though he's on the other side of the aisle. said he's still pulling for Randy, but after all "we're all Americans"

Amo Houghton would have racked up another 60/40 or 70/30 win last night against almost any Democrat, probably with my vote. If Republicans want to come back in New York State, they need to take a serious look at what Amo did right and what Randy Kuhl did wrong.

The AP has called the 29th race, so national and local media outlets are saying that it's over. However, Kuhl has not conceded, staking his claim on 20,000 or so uncounted absentee ballots.

This morning's CNN/AP tally shows Massa with a 4,400 vote lead, with 99% of the precincts counted.

To get a sense of the overall damage to the Republican party, Elmer sends this list from Politico.

Update: Here's the Leader story on the race. Massa agrees that every vote needs to be counted, and he's not declaring victory. The Leader pegs the absentee number as 12,000.

With 98% of the votes reported, Eric Massa holds a lead of a little more than 4,000 votes. That's a slightly smaller number than Kuhl's victory margin in 2006. Kuhl's margin stood after the absentee ballots were counted, and I assume that will be the case with Massa's margin.

Eric Massa will represent the 29th district in the 111th Congress. Congratulations to the Massa campaign.

I stood in line 10 minutes in Pittsford today at about 10:45. Almost half of my district had already voted.

DragonFlyEye says the lines were out the door first thing this morning at East Rochester.

Reader Elmer had no problems this morning in rural Steuben County.

Feel free to email or comment if you have a turnout story to share.

Here's Eric Massa at an event in the 12 Corners area of Brighton, a little over an hour ago, courtesy of Michael Parks. There's another one after the break.